*But the Ukrainian Armed Forces are being destroyed root and branch.*
A felicitous turn of phrase and events.
FWIW, I continue to hold my speculation that the resting western border of Russia will be The Elbe-Saale Line. Prussia is but one voiceless bilabial plosive away from Russia.
Peace is not in Russia's favour until the European elites are broken and the US accepts complete defeat. That will probably take the rest of 2025, and the Russians at the Dniepr and the borders with Moldova and Romania. Anything else would be idiotic given history, the Western oligarchy will never give up until a Russian boot has been smashed into its face hard enough.
In 2023 I thought it would take 10 years. It's now 2025 and I think it will be 8 more years. This is not a war of territorial conquest. It a cleansing of Western influence from Ukraine, a rejuvenation of Russian society, and creation of a world-wide alternative economic system for any country wanting to get out from under the Western mafia.
Trump just acknowledged that NATO screwed over Russia with its expansion and that was the cause of the war. So that’s step one. Acceptance. Now can the West accept they lost this war?
That’s step two. Denial. Since they cancel out each other, America can only walk away to end it without any agreement and leave Ukraine to its fate.
While the Americans and their vassals are losing in Ukraine, they have revived their never dead "Monroe Doctrine" and are asserting imperial control over Latin America and the Caribbean. I give an overview view in my latest Substack. The onslaught has just started. https://caribbeanhawk.substack.com/p/the-yankees-are-back?r=2pghlz
Don't forget Canada and Greenland. Remember, vassals are treated like door mats, respect is optional and now unlikely. I've seen this labelled the Donroe Doctrine, after all the man's ego exceeds the bounds of the continental US.
I didn't forget Greenland or Canada, just focussed on the Caribbean as we are usually ignored as minor collateral damage in the Great Game. Significantly, in my prior Substack I underlined the fact that Greenland is being "acquired" from Denmark in a similar fashion as the US Virgin Islands ,i.e. the former Danish West Indies. Then and now, America's granted itself the right to acquire ownership rights to foreign territory ignoring the sovereign rights of the inhabitants.
The UN Charter, like The US Constitution, reflects the deep will of humanity to be protected from pests. The piece of paper, as you put it, lacks divisions to command, but if it accurately reflects that deep will, as these two you mention do, then it will stand against any number of divisions and prevail. Always, prevail.
The Foreign Minister of Russia recently referenced the Yalta-Potsdam agreements as precursors of The UN Charter. In other words, they remain models relevant for application today because they reflect the deep will of humanity. Never sneer at a piece of paper memorializing an agreement just because it is a piece of paper, or because someone abridges its letter and spirit.
Your historiography is shallow and short. Voting results, like deep human will, cannot be annulled. They find a way to assert themselves, always.
Voting in the General Assembly is one thing, but the US has consistently demonstrated its unwillingness to abide by these votes. The reference to piece of paper refers to the willingness of people like George Bush to disregard and circumvent the US Constitution or International Law. Russia’s leadership sees these documents in a different light, and now it’s being decided on the battlefield. If you want to accuse people of a shallow appreciation of history you’d do better to direct your criticism to the US leadership class. That includes public figures like Col (ret) Douglas McGregor who persists with misunderstanding Soviet military history.
You blow over and past my point, which is the irresistibility of deep human will as expressed periodically in documents of historic significance, such as UN Charter and US Constitution. The Declaration of Arbroath is another example. General MacArthur's Thayer Medal speech is another.
I'd be very, very careful. There are serious, grown up, experienced, capable, powerful and very, very ruthless forces aligned against Russia. There are possibly forces not directly aligned against but with influence enough to swerve things in their own direction. That's Israel for an instance. Perhaps Turkey. Perhaps even China: such a powerful player of such great significance. And so on.
This is not a war in isolation, two fighters in a ring with Queensbury rules. This is a melee with no holds barred. It is not over until the fat lady does her thing - and in international politics does that ever happen?
It's not just 'win' on the battlefield, either - it's how we win. Demolish at a distance sure sounds good and saves Russian and Donbas Ukraine lives. Good. But it destroys Russian and Donbas Ukrainian property. Villages, towns, industries being destroyed that belong to Russia and Donbas Ukraine, not to Kiev. That's a sort of 'losing win' right there.
As to NATO it is without a shred of doubt simply an American front for attacking Russia. As such it needs removing not simply barring entry to Kiev Ukraine. How to remove it? Simply demand Russia be a member, is all. It will then fold and go away: i.e. America will leave.
As to Trump's 'written guarantees' I'm somewhat taken aback at seeing the suggestion. Surely if there is one single thing we have learned in this last decade it is that America cannot be trusted in ANY THING AT ALL ?
Anything Trump's regime wrote could be torn up and thrown away a couple of years later by a new government. Anything Trump's regime wrote could be torn up and thrown away by Trump's regime at a whim.
There are no deals with America. None. Perform the dance. Go through the rituals. Pretend. Stall. Make it look like deals are being done, do as you wish. But never for a single minute believe there's any substance in the 'deal' on the American side.
I am astounded. I am. We have had two years of constant iteration by all parties that the USA cannot be trusted in any way at all. We have Putin saying it over and over again. Lavrov. Zakharova. It is an axiom.
And now a man gets up and says he'll 'make a deal' ! ?? His whole claim to fame, self created, is that he is a 'deal maker' ?
You've found a snake in the grass who's forte is to make deals and renege on them and after decades you've finally woken up to that immutable truth. And now you propose making a deal with that snake because it has changed the appearance of its head?
Its fangs and its forked tongue remain exactly the same.
There is no room in Europe for the USA.
There is no room in the world for the USA.
Cut down to size it can become the playground of all those peoples in that area of the world: the 'Americas'. But it does not belong in Europe and it does not belong in the world at large.
Finish this job properly, at all levels. Yes, keep the loss of life down in the theatre but keep the loss of property down, too.
Ignore America.
Make arrangements with Europe and the East.
The argument is irrefutable. The riches that can be Europe's if it works together and spits America out are a fact, an irrefutable fact, one that America hates and fears so much.
Get Russia in NATO.
Marginalise America. Finish the job it has done on itself.
We are not going to be *marginalized,* at least not by someone else. Even desiring such an event could exist only well outside appreciation of reality. You are given to luxurious generalizations. Fine.
Likely you will reject the notion, so I lay it before you: currently, The USofA are a vassal of Europe, specifically London and to some extent Paris, not the other way around. The Monroe Doctrine expresses intent for European powers to consider The USofA *and The Americas "in toto"* as marginalized, by self-initiative(!), in respect to European powers. IOW, KEEP AWAY! What you consider our punishment we consider our patrimony! We are US Americans. Live with it . . . from a distance!
Do you, by any coincidence, have authority or power to implement demands you make on nations?
To be clear, Marat never said that Trump, or any American, can be trusted. He made two observations where he never mentioned American guarantees as a welcome victory. Clearly, the fight is not over yet. But things are moving in the right direction.
That's fair enough, as the US has never respected any signed document. Wasn't it George Bush Jr who said the Constitution was just a piece of paper. Any respite will be used to continue aggression just as we see the little satan doing in Lebanon and Syria, Gaza, the West Bank, etc. I'm afraid the US will collapse its vassals long before its own collapse.
The clear victory is Russia will be deciding & dictating the peace on its terms. NATO can like it or lump it. We all know those in the ruling classes are all failed politicians. Bought & paid for like every other prostitute. They only had 1 option fro finally being exposed for what they are. If they'd gotten their fantasy of a Russian collapse. They already had Russia's riches worked out between themselves. As a result of their misguided fantasies they threw everything at Russia. All of their weapons & all of their tax payers money (it's easy gambling with other people's money). The EU & UK have ruined themselves & are desperate. If that isn't obvious to everyone. They need to get their brain washed heads out of the sand. The US will just carry on printing more of their crap while they still can. They will try & be a thorn in Russia's side. But this is a Russian/Chinese century from now on. Who's to say it won't be a Russian/Chinese millennium. Both have faced adversity in the recent histories. Both have gotten themselves out of that position. The Western Europeans, UK/US haven't got the experience to deal with real adversity. I've got a feeling they're going to have to learn in the not to distant future.
It seems so, I think this is Alex Krainer's hypothesis. The City went all in on the Ukraine bet, after all I think it came off second best in spoils to the US in Iraq. Now there are no spoils, only bad debts. The Pope wants a jubilee - is this a trial balloon to the west annulling what it owes? Of course everyone else still owes them..
The decision of how far to go in Ukraine is obviously Russia's. But one thing I'm certain of: any 'grand bargain' that Russia reaches with the collective west over Ukraine isn't worth the paper it's printed on. The west will not give up it's intent to politically, economically and militarily dominate Russia. As such anything put into an international treaty will be trampled on by Washington and its minions. If Trump doesn't do the dirty work himself, then it will be the American Deep State or a future president that does.
There is no world security under the US hegemon. Conflict is the only thing they know.
What does Victory look like? Victory on the battlefield is a gimme, however, there can be zero guarantees of future western conduct unless Trumplethinskin not only drains the swamp but decapitates it.
Remember during the Syrian debacle the CIA did not even inform Trump (1st Term) that they had sent in additional troops. Only God knows what else this terrorist organisation hid from him.
You can at best only wipe your arse with American Agreements. Fool me one, twice, thrice . . . .
For those special morons... The North Atlantic Terrorist Organization is a simple PROFIT MACHINE. Nothing else. The terrorists from the member Plantations participate in exercices that mean from little to nothing in terms of COMBAT readiness. The missions under the NATO banner are a wonderful source of INCOME INCREASE for the terrorists that participate in them, since the salaries aren't that great in most Plantations.
In short expecting that a bunch of neo-nazis and a few peasants from Ukrainistan could do anything against the Bear only shows that the one expecting is a special moron!
This begins to look like Ulysses Grant's Overland campaign. Outnumbered, the Confederates to entrenching quite effectively. The Union forces persistently moved foward by flanking. This forced the Confederates into their defences in Richmond and St. Petersburg where they we then pinned and trapped. Grant's artillery and superior supply lines entrapped their enemy in their own lines where -as at Vicksburg they were relentlessly hammered. After outflanking Lee at Five Forks the retreating Confederate forces are in such wretched condition they are forced to surrender in one week.
Grant, like Putin, took a lot of heat for his methodical discipline but by this strategy he destroyed the his enemy utterly without having to undertake frontal assaults.
seems to me the natural way if you outman the opposition. especially so if he's undermanned, too. i.e. cannot front the 'standard' front. Hasn't even the men for that. For then he's driven to use his troops to defend in local areas rather than throughout the line.
so you go through between those areas. and then starve them out.
I have been wondering for a long time why the allies don't mount 'raids' after the nature of the Kursk exploit simply to demonstrate that they can. For PR and for reducing enemy morale and for learning and for sheer exuberance.
Made me suspect maybe they could not. Maybe the outmanning was a myth. And so on.
But now I begin to believe it is all true alright and what we're seeing is simply the unimaginative inexorable military way of adjusting to that fact.
My flamboyant raids unnecessary frivolity I suppose. The hard men on the ground all know the truth and wise men overseeing would know it too.
reminiscent of medieval warfare actually, isn't it? no 'front' as such just armies wandering around. the one seeking to find the other and destroy it.
so the problem always was that any town you went around might have a strong garrison within that would release an attack on you from behind when you went past.
I suppose the same dangers exist today? Especially considering the explosive military potential of a mere unit of fpv operators, their drones and their munitions.
I suppose you could easily fit a couple of thousand drones in a typical residential home. Even more munitions to strap to them. And merely one room to keep the operators in.
Let the 'enemy' go past with his enveloping tactic/strategy. Let him bring up his artillery, his armour, his munitions. And at leisure and with ease perhaps destroy them. Not quite as easy as I make it sound there but that's the danger, surely? From one residential property the destructive potential of what: an artillery battery and a couple of infantry companies?
There's another tactic I've heard nothing of which seems potentially possible. 'sleeping drones'. I would fly drones all along a highway such as the road from Sumy to Sudzha. And bring them down and let them go into standby mode by the side of the road or not far from it.
Then observe the road from on high. When appropriate activate a drone down there and let it rise and home in.
I see no mention anywhere of this tactic. And i note that all drone seem to be 'launched' even the hand held ones. As to that i'd expect it to be well possible to make them so's they can launch themselves.
That's why I find it so incredible that Kiev can still mount very belligerent attacks as far north as Malaya Loknya - with armour included even ! How do they get stuff up there along a well known, well observed road?
The Ukraine contest has made the previous rules and material obsolete. Matters evolve so fast, under pressure. Whatever you got is yesterday in short order. The Russians have got their shit together. They have momentum. They are now invincible.
'invincible'. that's what we'd all like to think. we're just a tad short of proof. and we're all looking and hoping to find it or those who can tell of it perhaps.
The standard is 'the arbitrament of war' and the Russians are winning. The military forces of the Ukraine and the west are of inferior quality and are poorly led.
The ONLY thing Trumplethinskin is running are the NUMBERS.
He's more palatable than the cesspool that is DC but unless we see the gutting of MIC.gov where all the heads are thrown into a large paella vat then nothing changes.
Odessa and Mykolayev must be annexed. This is extremely important for both having what will remain of Ukraine landlocked and have total control of the entire Northern shore of Black Sea but, more importantly to guarantee a land corridor to the landlocked Transnistria. Anything else concerning territorial gains, with the exception of the already annexed territories of course, could be put on the negotiation table.
I think this but I have no faith it will happen. Mykolayev is never even mentioned in context of absorption. How would that go? What percentage would vote for secession even, self determination as the Donbas first wanted, never mind federation with Russia?
Sorry about the spelling. Nikolaev, okay. Well that's heartening news. Makes the situation that much more amenable to lasting solution. A 'natural' solution that manifests human realities on the ground. If we have one ethnicity, one language, right across there then that's a natural for one state. To my mind.
Has the inbuilt problem of major minorities of course. As everywhere. As Turkey with Kurds, say. But here we have inbuilt solution. They can go to rump Ukraine: the borderlands.
wouldn't that be something if Russia suddenly made a massive attack from Kherson to Odessa? With hundreds and hundreds of tanks, say?
But I think all previous attempts at massive tank attacks have led to disaster. They're out of favour now.
Nikolaev is a very "funny" situation because of who the governor is -- Vitaly Kim. Yes, Kim. Russian/Soviet Korean. And a fully committed Banderite.
Make that make sense...
Banderite ideology has it as a core position that Russians are subhuman mongrel half-mongoloids.
Now they doubled down on it with the whole North Korean soldiers fabrication.
And yet Vitaly Kim is the governor of Nikolaev. And he played a major role in preventing a Kherson scenario (where the local authorities surrendered without a fight) there in March 2022, thus ruining the SMO -- had Nikolaev been secured, Kherson would have been taken out of HIMARS range, the bridgehead over the river would have been stabilized, and Odessa would have fallen too. And we would be in a very, very, very different situation now.
But that person is a subhuman by official Ukrainian ideology...
aha. the plot thickens. so nikolaev is 'problematic', we could say. in such a setup I'd suppose secret police and infiltrators and lists of organisations/peoples 'of interest' to the govt. would be a given. meaning a transition to a russia supportive nikolaev would be somewhat fraught.
It does seem that for the last 3 years and the next 3 years the priority is readiness for war with Nato, and not SMO or war with Ukraine. Of course the first month with the distraction around kiev allowd Russia to get enough artillery in to defend Donbas, eliminating the one key strength that Kiev had (ability to slaughter Donbas civilians or enforce an evacuation of Donbas). Without that strength the war has been completely pointless from the Ukrainian pov and there has been no time pressure for Russia since.
It appears (to me) to be very optimistic, and seems to assume that the fanatics in the EU, UK and US will not continue to purposefully cause trouble in whatever rump State remains of Ukraine, using its vassals.
Plus, potentially nuclear-tipped NATO missiles will remain in bases within easy range of expanded Russian territory, unless NATO is disbanded and geography comes to dictate persistent sphere's of influence with, at minimum, continued subversion and chronic terrorism, given the well ingrained hatred that has been seeded by the USSR and accelerated by the current Hegemon and its Euro-Satellites.
Are you so optimistic that you see the probability of a new Security Architecture rolling back NATO membership to 1997 or earlier and greater than 50%? 25%?
If so, I'd like to know your reasons, because I'd like to be as optimistic as you seem to be.
The pampered fanatics are for personal inconveniences and discomforts, the more the better. Long overdue for decent people of Europe to punish the compradors and bloody war profiteers.
*But the Ukrainian Armed Forces are being destroyed root and branch.*
A felicitous turn of phrase and events.
FWIW, I continue to hold my speculation that the resting western border of Russia will be The Elbe-Saale Line. Prussia is but one voiceless bilabial plosive away from Russia.
Peace is not in Russia's favour until the European elites are broken and the US accepts complete defeat. That will probably take the rest of 2025, and the Russians at the Dniepr and the borders with Moldova and Romania. Anything else would be idiotic given history, the Western oligarchy will never give up until a Russian boot has been smashed into its face hard enough.
In 2023 I thought it would take 10 years. It's now 2025 and I think it will be 8 more years. This is not a war of territorial conquest. It a cleansing of Western influence from Ukraine, a rejuvenation of Russian society, and creation of a world-wide alternative economic system for any country wanting to get out from under the Western mafia.
So far, so good. Patience.
Trump just acknowledged that NATO screwed over Russia with its expansion and that was the cause of the war. So that’s step one. Acceptance. Now can the West accept they lost this war?
That’s step two. Denial. Since they cancel out each other, America can only walk away to end it without any agreement and leave Ukraine to its fate.
While the Americans and their vassals are losing in Ukraine, they have revived their never dead "Monroe Doctrine" and are asserting imperial control over Latin America and the Caribbean. I give an overview view in my latest Substack. The onslaught has just started. https://caribbeanhawk.substack.com/p/the-yankees-are-back?r=2pghlz
Don't forget Canada and Greenland. Remember, vassals are treated like door mats, respect is optional and now unlikely. I've seen this labelled the Donroe Doctrine, after all the man's ego exceeds the bounds of the continental US.
I didn't forget Greenland or Canada, just focussed on the Caribbean as we are usually ignored as minor collateral damage in the Great Game. Significantly, in my prior Substack I underlined the fact that Greenland is being "acquired" from Denmark in a similar fashion as the US Virgin Islands ,i.e. the former Danish West Indies. Then and now, America's granted itself the right to acquire ownership rights to foreign territory ignoring the sovereign rights of the inhabitants.
The EU is a reflection of this - voting results can be annulled at will. The UN Charter like the US Constitution is just another piece of paper.
The UN Charter, like The US Constitution, reflects the deep will of humanity to be protected from pests. The piece of paper, as you put it, lacks divisions to command, but if it accurately reflects that deep will, as these two you mention do, then it will stand against any number of divisions and prevail. Always, prevail.
The Foreign Minister of Russia recently referenced the Yalta-Potsdam agreements as precursors of The UN Charter. In other words, they remain models relevant for application today because they reflect the deep will of humanity. Never sneer at a piece of paper memorializing an agreement just because it is a piece of paper, or because someone abridges its letter and spirit.
Your historiography is shallow and short. Voting results, like deep human will, cannot be annulled. They find a way to assert themselves, always.
Voting in the General Assembly is one thing, but the US has consistently demonstrated its unwillingness to abide by these votes. The reference to piece of paper refers to the willingness of people like George Bush to disregard and circumvent the US Constitution or International Law. Russia’s leadership sees these documents in a different light, and now it’s being decided on the battlefield. If you want to accuse people of a shallow appreciation of history you’d do better to direct your criticism to the US leadership class. That includes public figures like Col (ret) Douglas McGregor who persists with misunderstanding Soviet military history.
You blow over and past my point, which is the irresistibility of deep human will as expressed periodically in documents of historic significance, such as UN Charter and US Constitution. The Declaration of Arbroath is another example. General MacArthur's Thayer Medal speech is another.
I'd be very, very careful. There are serious, grown up, experienced, capable, powerful and very, very ruthless forces aligned against Russia. There are possibly forces not directly aligned against but with influence enough to swerve things in their own direction. That's Israel for an instance. Perhaps Turkey. Perhaps even China: such a powerful player of such great significance. And so on.
This is not a war in isolation, two fighters in a ring with Queensbury rules. This is a melee with no holds barred. It is not over until the fat lady does her thing - and in international politics does that ever happen?
It's not just 'win' on the battlefield, either - it's how we win. Demolish at a distance sure sounds good and saves Russian and Donbas Ukraine lives. Good. But it destroys Russian and Donbas Ukrainian property. Villages, towns, industries being destroyed that belong to Russia and Donbas Ukraine, not to Kiev. That's a sort of 'losing win' right there.
As to NATO it is without a shred of doubt simply an American front for attacking Russia. As such it needs removing not simply barring entry to Kiev Ukraine. How to remove it? Simply demand Russia be a member, is all. It will then fold and go away: i.e. America will leave.
As to Trump's 'written guarantees' I'm somewhat taken aback at seeing the suggestion. Surely if there is one single thing we have learned in this last decade it is that America cannot be trusted in ANY THING AT ALL ?
Anything Trump's regime wrote could be torn up and thrown away a couple of years later by a new government. Anything Trump's regime wrote could be torn up and thrown away by Trump's regime at a whim.
There are no deals with America. None. Perform the dance. Go through the rituals. Pretend. Stall. Make it look like deals are being done, do as you wish. But never for a single minute believe there's any substance in the 'deal' on the American side.
I am astounded. I am. We have had two years of constant iteration by all parties that the USA cannot be trusted in any way at all. We have Putin saying it over and over again. Lavrov. Zakharova. It is an axiom.
And now a man gets up and says he'll 'make a deal' ! ?? His whole claim to fame, self created, is that he is a 'deal maker' ?
You've found a snake in the grass who's forte is to make deals and renege on them and after decades you've finally woken up to that immutable truth. And now you propose making a deal with that snake because it has changed the appearance of its head?
Its fangs and its forked tongue remain exactly the same.
There is no room in Europe for the USA.
There is no room in the world for the USA.
Cut down to size it can become the playground of all those peoples in that area of the world: the 'Americas'. But it does not belong in Europe and it does not belong in the world at large.
Finish this job properly, at all levels. Yes, keep the loss of life down in the theatre but keep the loss of property down, too.
Ignore America.
Make arrangements with Europe and the East.
The argument is irrefutable. The riches that can be Europe's if it works together and spits America out are a fact, an irrefutable fact, one that America hates and fears so much.
Get Russia in NATO.
Marginalise America. Finish the job it has done on itself.
We are not going to be *marginalized,* at least not by someone else. Even desiring such an event could exist only well outside appreciation of reality. You are given to luxurious generalizations. Fine.
Likely you will reject the notion, so I lay it before you: currently, The USofA are a vassal of Europe, specifically London and to some extent Paris, not the other way around. The Monroe Doctrine expresses intent for European powers to consider The USofA *and The Americas "in toto"* as marginalized, by self-initiative(!), in respect to European powers. IOW, KEEP AWAY! What you consider our punishment we consider our patrimony! We are US Americans. Live with it . . . from a distance!
Do you, by any coincidence, have authority or power to implement demands you make on nations?
Ya!
We are Fatmericans!
Shake in fear while we replace our incontinence diapers!
Oh please!
To be clear, Marat never said that Trump, or any American, can be trusted. He made two observations where he never mentioned American guarantees as a welcome victory. Clearly, the fight is not over yet. But things are moving in the right direction.
That's fair enough, as the US has never respected any signed document. Wasn't it George Bush Jr who said the Constitution was just a piece of paper. Any respite will be used to continue aggression just as we see the little satan doing in Lebanon and Syria, Gaza, the West Bank, etc. I'm afraid the US will collapse its vassals long before its own collapse.
The clear victory is Russia will be deciding & dictating the peace on its terms. NATO can like it or lump it. We all know those in the ruling classes are all failed politicians. Bought & paid for like every other prostitute. They only had 1 option fro finally being exposed for what they are. If they'd gotten their fantasy of a Russian collapse. They already had Russia's riches worked out between themselves. As a result of their misguided fantasies they threw everything at Russia. All of their weapons & all of their tax payers money (it's easy gambling with other people's money). The EU & UK have ruined themselves & are desperate. If that isn't obvious to everyone. They need to get their brain washed heads out of the sand. The US will just carry on printing more of their crap while they still can. They will try & be a thorn in Russia's side. But this is a Russian/Chinese century from now on. Who's to say it won't be a Russian/Chinese millennium. Both have faced adversity in the recent histories. Both have gotten themselves out of that position. The Western Europeans, UK/US haven't got the experience to deal with real adversity. I've got a feeling they're going to have to learn in the not to distant future.
The UK is not far from total catastrophic financial collapse. It is bankrupt and was counting on Russian treasure to bail itself out.
Too bad, so sad, not really.
It seems so, I think this is Alex Krainer's hypothesis. The City went all in on the Ukraine bet, after all I think it came off second best in spoils to the US in Iraq. Now there are no spoils, only bad debts. The Pope wants a jubilee - is this a trial balloon to the west annulling what it owes? Of course everyone else still owes them..
The decision of how far to go in Ukraine is obviously Russia's. But one thing I'm certain of: any 'grand bargain' that Russia reaches with the collective west over Ukraine isn't worth the paper it's printed on. The west will not give up it's intent to politically, economically and militarily dominate Russia. As such anything put into an international treaty will be trampled on by Washington and its minions. If Trump doesn't do the dirty work himself, then it will be the American Deep State or a future president that does.
There is no world security under the US hegemon. Conflict is the only thing they know.
Marat is Mustard, meaning HOT.
What does Victory look like? Victory on the battlefield is a gimme, however, there can be zero guarantees of future western conduct unless Trumplethinskin not only drains the swamp but decapitates it.
Remember during the Syrian debacle the CIA did not even inform Trump (1st Term) that they had sent in additional troops. Only God knows what else this terrorist organisation hid from him.
You can at best only wipe your arse with American Agreements. Fool me one, twice, thrice . . . .
After the magnificent (NATO software is very good at winning virtual games!) SUMMER "OFFENSIVE"
https://voza0db.substack.com/p/morons-just-dont-get-it-6fe
(I have to confess that I'm said that very few Ukranistanian Women were sent to the front line contrary to the PROPAGANDA... After all, DEI)
the next moronic military tactic was the Kursk stupidity.
After that it was clear that Russia would do whatever they wanted in the battle field.
For those special morons... The North Atlantic Terrorist Organization is a simple PROFIT MACHINE. Nothing else. The terrorists from the member Plantations participate in exercices that mean from little to nothing in terms of COMBAT readiness. The missions under the NATO banner are a wonderful source of INCOME INCREASE for the terrorists that participate in them, since the salaries aren't that great in most Plantations.
In short expecting that a bunch of neo-nazis and a few peasants from Ukrainistan could do anything against the Bear only shows that the one expecting is a special moron!
Nazi American Terrorist Organization
Thank you!
This begins to look like Ulysses Grant's Overland campaign. Outnumbered, the Confederates to entrenching quite effectively. The Union forces persistently moved foward by flanking. This forced the Confederates into their defences in Richmond and St. Petersburg where they we then pinned and trapped. Grant's artillery and superior supply lines entrapped their enemy in their own lines where -as at Vicksburg they were relentlessly hammered. After outflanking Lee at Five Forks the retreating Confederate forces are in such wretched condition they are forced to surrender in one week.
Grant, like Putin, took a lot of heat for his methodical discipline but by this strategy he destroyed the his enemy utterly without having to undertake frontal assaults.
I'd like to share this comment on Twitter.
seems to me the natural way if you outman the opposition. especially so if he's undermanned, too. i.e. cannot front the 'standard' front. Hasn't even the men for that. For then he's driven to use his troops to defend in local areas rather than throughout the line.
so you go through between those areas. and then starve them out.
I have been wondering for a long time why the allies don't mount 'raids' after the nature of the Kursk exploit simply to demonstrate that they can. For PR and for reducing enemy morale and for learning and for sheer exuberance.
Made me suspect maybe they could not. Maybe the outmanning was a myth. And so on.
But now I begin to believe it is all true alright and what we're seeing is simply the unimaginative inexorable military way of adjusting to that fact.
My flamboyant raids unnecessary frivolity I suppose. The hard men on the ground all know the truth and wise men overseeing would know it too.
As you say Grant said: "He doesn't have enough army".
Kurst is Early's Washington gamble. Same result. The engine rolls on.
reminiscent of medieval warfare actually, isn't it? no 'front' as such just armies wandering around. the one seeking to find the other and destroy it.
so the problem always was that any town you went around might have a strong garrison within that would release an attack on you from behind when you went past.
I suppose the same dangers exist today? Especially considering the explosive military potential of a mere unit of fpv operators, their drones and their munitions.
I suppose you could easily fit a couple of thousand drones in a typical residential home. Even more munitions to strap to them. And merely one room to keep the operators in.
Let the 'enemy' go past with his enveloping tactic/strategy. Let him bring up his artillery, his armour, his munitions. And at leisure and with ease perhaps destroy them. Not quite as easy as I make it sound there but that's the danger, surely? From one residential property the destructive potential of what: an artillery battery and a couple of infantry companies?
There's another tactic I've heard nothing of which seems potentially possible. 'sleeping drones'. I would fly drones all along a highway such as the road from Sumy to Sudzha. And bring them down and let them go into standby mode by the side of the road or not far from it.
Then observe the road from on high. When appropriate activate a drone down there and let it rise and home in.
I see no mention anywhere of this tactic. And i note that all drone seem to be 'launched' even the hand held ones. As to that i'd expect it to be well possible to make them so's they can launch themselves.
That's why I find it so incredible that Kiev can still mount very belligerent attacks as far north as Malaya Loknya - with armour included even ! How do they get stuff up there along a well known, well observed road?
The Ukraine contest has made the previous rules and material obsolete. Matters evolve so fast, under pressure. Whatever you got is yesterday in short order. The Russians have got their shit together. They have momentum. They are now invincible.
'invincible'. that's what we'd all like to think. we're just a tad short of proof. and we're all looking and hoping to find it or those who can tell of it perhaps.
The standard is 'the arbitrament of war' and the Russians are winning. The military forces of the Ukraine and the west are of inferior quality and are poorly led.
It all depends on Trump and the neo-colonizers he has surrounded himself with!
Hope he focuses more on solving domestic problems than waging foreign wars!
The ONLY thing Trumplethinskin is running are the NUMBERS.
He's more palatable than the cesspool that is DC but unless we see the gutting of MIC.gov where all the heads are thrown into a large paella vat then nothing changes.
Odessa and Mykolayev must be annexed. This is extremely important for both having what will remain of Ukraine landlocked and have total control of the entire Northern shore of Black Sea but, more importantly to guarantee a land corridor to the landlocked Transnistria. Anything else concerning territorial gains, with the exception of the already annexed territories of course, could be put on the negotiation table.
I think this but I have no faith it will happen. Mykolayev is never even mentioned in context of absorption. How would that go? What percentage would vote for secession even, self determination as the Donbas first wanted, never mind federation with Russia?
Nikolaev (spell it right, please) is actually more pro-Russian than Kherson.
And Odessa is more pro-Russian than even the Zaporozhye
Sorry about the spelling. Nikolaev, okay. Well that's heartening news. Makes the situation that much more amenable to lasting solution. A 'natural' solution that manifests human realities on the ground. If we have one ethnicity, one language, right across there then that's a natural for one state. To my mind.
Has the inbuilt problem of major minorities of course. As everywhere. As Turkey with Kurds, say. But here we have inbuilt solution. They can go to rump Ukraine: the borderlands.
wouldn't that be something if Russia suddenly made a massive attack from Kherson to Odessa? With hundreds and hundreds of tanks, say?
But I think all previous attempts at massive tank attacks have led to disaster. They're out of favour now.
But I'd love to see it if it weren't suicidal. :)
Nikolaev is a very "funny" situation because of who the governor is -- Vitaly Kim. Yes, Kim. Russian/Soviet Korean. And a fully committed Banderite.
Make that make sense...
Banderite ideology has it as a core position that Russians are subhuman mongrel half-mongoloids.
Now they doubled down on it with the whole North Korean soldiers fabrication.
And yet Vitaly Kim is the governor of Nikolaev. And he played a major role in preventing a Kherson scenario (where the local authorities surrendered without a fight) there in March 2022, thus ruining the SMO -- had Nikolaev been secured, Kherson would have been taken out of HIMARS range, the bridgehead over the river would have been stabilized, and Odessa would have fallen too. And we would be in a very, very, very different situation now.
But that person is a subhuman by official Ukrainian ideology...
aha. the plot thickens. so nikolaev is 'problematic', we could say. in such a setup I'd suppose secret police and infiltrators and lists of organisations/peoples 'of interest' to the govt. would be a given. meaning a transition to a russia supportive nikolaev would be somewhat fraught.
It does seem that for the last 3 years and the next 3 years the priority is readiness for war with Nato, and not SMO or war with Ukraine. Of course the first month with the distraction around kiev allowd Russia to get enough artillery in to defend Donbas, eliminating the one key strength that Kiev had (ability to slaughter Donbas civilians or enforce an evacuation of Donbas). Without that strength the war has been completely pointless from the Ukrainian pov and there has been no time pressure for Russia since.
Thanks for sharing your analysis.
It appears (to me) to be very optimistic, and seems to assume that the fanatics in the EU, UK and US will not continue to purposefully cause trouble in whatever rump State remains of Ukraine, using its vassals.
Plus, potentially nuclear-tipped NATO missiles will remain in bases within easy range of expanded Russian territory, unless NATO is disbanded and geography comes to dictate persistent sphere's of influence with, at minimum, continued subversion and chronic terrorism, given the well ingrained hatred that has been seeded by the USSR and accelerated by the current Hegemon and its Euro-Satellites.
Are you so optimistic that you see the probability of a new Security Architecture rolling back NATO membership to 1997 or earlier and greater than 50%? 25%?
If so, I'd like to know your reasons, because I'd like to be as optimistic as you seem to be.
The pampered fanatics are for personal inconveniences and discomforts, the more the better. Long overdue for decent people of Europe to punish the compradors and bloody war profiteers.