Victory is already in sight. Ukraine has lost the war. This is not even an axiom, but a ready, settled foundation on which the walls of the future building are being poured right now. What is happening on the ground is nothing more than the convulsions of the regime. No one is interested in Ukropia and the Ukies as such - Trump is now openly flirting and offering Putin negotiations without any "Zelenskys."
Europe is still trying to puff itself up, but it is too weak to fight on its own. An amazing transformation has taken place in 2024: Europe has turned into a political ukropia, a blotting-paper country whose opinion is of no interest to anyone. Trump has not been finished off, and the pendulum is starting to swing back.
And here, if we speak directly about the front, it is important to note some serious trends that indicate that the leadership of our country is making decisions for the post-war reality.
The first trend:
The Ukrainian Armed Forces on the ground can no longer offer serious resistance. In the main directions (primarily Pokrovsk), the Russian army is conducting a total cleansing. Our troops are deployed in convenient positions around populated areas that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have turned into fortifications, and gradually, using remote methods, they destroy any enemy presence. Then, the infantry enters the empty enemy positions, and the Ukrainians can do nothing about this tactic.
Previously, the Ukrainian Armed Forces responded to this with counterattacks, quickly transferring reserves from one area to another. Now we are pressing along the entire front. The renainder of the Ukrainian reserves are dying near Kursk.
Yes, the speed of our army's advance is not as high as some would like - a total cleansing takes time. But the Ukrainian Armed Forces are being destroyed root and branch. In this sense, the Ukrainians can be called a zombie army or an army of the dead. They are still trying to shoot, launch drones, but in the end, they have already been crossed off the list of the living. In political terms, this is the same denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine. The last teeth are pulled out of a mad dog, and when the dental procedures are finished, the toothless carcass will be of no interest to anyone.
The second important trend:
The dynamics of the process - we are accelerating, and the Ukrainians are getting more and more exhausted. And finally, a moment that few people see - our army is not just modernizing, it is starting to rejuvenate. In each unit at the company level, separate UAV platoons are being created, and recruits no older than 30 are being recruited there. We are actively attracting twenty-year-old guys.
In general, the army has also begun a process of renewal of the middle officer ranks - everyone over 45 years old is being put into the reserve. This primarily concerns the rear, support, and staff services. At the same time, if we take the main combat unit, then in battalions, the overwhelming majority of the command staff is no older than 35. Company commanders are very rarely older than 30 years old. Even the composition of the assault units (those that carry out cleanup operations on the ground) has changed – assault troops over forty are becoming increasingly rare.
What does this mean?
We are building the army in its current configuration for the long term. Not for one decade. This is a very important political signal - we have a young, battle-hardened, and well-armed army.
Summarizing all of this, we can draw some conclusions.
Firstly, we are ready for negotiations. By and large, Trump in the current situation can easily give written guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO, no one will listen to Europe's opinion. Denazification has already been practically implemented. After peace comes, Ukraine will face very serious internal showdowns - Zelensky's Nazi regime will be overthrown. Processes similar to those in Georgia will begin.
The most important thing is that peace is now beneficial to us - Ukrainian idiocy has exposed the complete decline of the West. The process of decay there is entering an open phase - it is better for us to fence ourselves off and observe. It is cheaper. In other words, the essence of what is happening at the front is that there is not much time left before reaching the constitutional borders of Russia, and after that it is quite possible to sit down at the negotiating table. This is the main strategy of our Victory!
Generally I think this is positive news. My only comment would be regarding any negotiations with Trump (or any US President, for that matter): you need to future proof any agreement against incoming Presidents.
VVP has stated many times that the west is agreement incapable, and so it has proved, with regard to both missile treaties, NATO expansion, and Minsk 1 & 2. Not sure how Russia could realize that since Minsk was ratified into international law through the UNSC, and ignored by the west. So, how do you reach agreements with people who ignore the law when it suits them (as in, all the time)?
Thanks for sharing your analysis.
It appears (to me) to be very optimistic, and seems to assume that the fanatics in the EU, UK and US will not continue to purposefully cause trouble in whatever rump State remains of Ukraine, using its vassals.
Plus, potentially nuclear-tipped NATO missiles will remain in bases within easy range of expanded Russian territory, unless NATO is disbanded and geography comes to dictate persistent sphere's of influence with, at minimum, continued subversion and chronic terrorism, given the well ingrained hatred that has been seeded by the USSR and accelerated by the current Hegemon and its Euro-Satellites.
Are you so optimistic that you see the probability of a new Security Architecture rolling back NATO membership to 1997 or earlier and greater than 50%? 25%?
If so, I'd like to know your reasons, because I'd like to be as optimistic as you seem to be.