The Russian science of winning, or why the riffraff will always lose.

By Marat Khairullin

In short, uneducated cattle always lose for two reasons. The first is because they are uneducated, the second is because they are not systematic. To paraphrase for our case: victory is military science plus system. How the system wins against those who do not have a long-term plan is shown by the catastrophe of the Ukrops, which is currently happening in the Pokrovsky direction. Moreover, these same fruits of regular efforts to build the Russian army show where the enemy will crack with a crunch in the near future.

To understand this, let us examine the situation in more detail from the point of view of the systematic construction, figuratively speaking, of Victory. Especially since there is a good reason to do so: another decree was made by the President of the Russian Federation to increase the number of troops. Looking ahead, this just shows that we, unlike the enemy, are not just smart and educated, but we are also systematic. Let's dive into the recent past and compare how the dumb cattle and the smart Russian army act.

First of all, the cattle always act by force: what will happen later, does not interest them - they need it urgently here and now. That is exactly how the Ukrops acted after the failure of the Istanbul agreements. Having completely lost the first stage of the war, they very quickly formed 4 groups of troops:

"North" (Kharkov-Poltava) - about 80 thousand people at the peak;

"Khortytsia" (Kupyansk-Bakhmut) - about 240 thousand at the peak;

"Tavria" (Donetsk-Zaporozhye) - about 260 thousand at the peak;

"Odessa" (Kakhovka-Kherson) - about 60 thousand.

These groups were then immediately thrown into the offensive.

By and large, it seemed like the right decision - to quickly defeat our numerically inferior SMO group while there was still an opportunity. However, the poorly educated Ukrainians did not know that retreat is also a maneuver, and they did not calculate a plan for the case when ours could regroup and go on the defensive at convenient lines for themselves. Moreover, the Ukrainians, having started the first offensive, made their most characteristic mistake - they did not calculate the consequences. The rapid escalation caused an equally serious response: at the first stage, mobilization, at the second, an increase in the personnel of the Russian army.

The next move of the Ukrops after the failure of the great Kharkov-Kherson Ukrop offensive was just as ill-considered - to sit in a deep and very expensive defense in terms of losses of personnel and, at the same time, to prepare a counteroffensive with the available forces. Again, the Ukrainians, famous for their short minds, did not calculate the consequences. "What will happen after the counteroffensive? What will happen when Russia accumulates enough forces in defense?"

Of course, the most important miscalculation of the Ukrops, of course, was that they did not take care of their people at all. Look, according to the statistics of the Ministry of Defense for 2023-2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost almost seven hundred thousand soldiers in unnecessary, empty operations like Krynki and the Counteroffensive ™️. Let me remind you that the enemy tried to counterattack literally on all sections of the front until the very end, suffering huge losses. Just imagine what would have happened now if the Ukrainian Armed Forces had at least halved their losses, without exterminating their own soldiers in senseless PR attacks, or if instead of the signature Ukrop stubbornness they had simply mastered retreat maneuvers in secondary directions? In that case, they would now have an additional 350 thousand experienced troops, for example, in the Pokrovsk direction. Instead, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a bare ass - this is the price of the Ukrops' stupidity.

Now, look at how Russian commanders acted against this backdrop. At the first stage, 300 thousand mobilized troops allowed 280 new units to be formed at the end of 2022. Then, at the beginning of 2023, the formation of two new armies (25th and 18th) and 50 new formations and units began, including four divisions, 18 brigades, and 28 regiments, plus one mixed air corps. The most important thing is not even this, but how we disposed of these new formations. 280 newly formed units based on mobilized men supported the troops fighting in the first section, like my “Slavyanka,” with a second line.

The armies and brigades formed by the second wave, entirely made up of contract soldiers, began to gradually occupy the calmest sections of the front, simultaneously gaining experience and freeing up the most combat-ready units for future offensive operations. Along the way, the units directly located at the front were gradually filled with new units. For example, in infantry brigades, instead of three battalions, there were now four, in tank regiments, instead of one battalion, there were two. And so on.

In addition, super-powerful shock infantry brigades such as “Slavyanka” exist, designed to break through the enemy’s deeply echeloned defense.

This allowed us to secretly form a powerful fist near Avdiivka by the fall of 2023. At the first stage, the 41st army and two special forces brigades (the basis of the Center group) were secretly transferred to the Avdiivka direction and, together with the South group, created a powerful force. Let's count: this group actually included our 8th army, which included the 1st Donetsk and 2nd Lugansk-Severodonetsk corps. Added to this were five airborne assault brigades and two special forces brigades.

Since the New Year of 2024, units of the 2nd Combined Arms Army have begun to join the units of the Center group.Since the spring of 2024, units of the 25th Army that have gained combat experience have also joined. This coincided with the opening of the Toretsk sector - the 25th Army took up positions in the Pokrovsk direction, and the freed units were transferred to Toretsk and New York.

The formation of new units and formations did not stop for a minute. While the battles were going on in the Pokrovsk direction, a full-fledged 51st Army was formed on the basis of the 1st Donetsk Corps, which took Novgorodskoye (New York), for which its commander, Lieutenant General Sergei Milchakov, was awarded the title of Hero of Russia. (By the way, the 51st Army was recently awarded the title of Guards. Congratulations, Guards!) On the basis of the 2nd Lugansk Corps, the 3rd Combined Arms Army was formed. Let me remind you that this happened right during the successful offensive in the Pokrovsk direction.

Russian flag raised in Novgorodskoye

Let's sum it up once again: a year ago, the Avdeevka-Pokrovsk offensive operation was launched by two armies and about 10 special forces brigades. In fact, today, here we have seven armies, and, according to somewhat inaccurate data, about 15 new divisions. (For example, my "Slavyanka" was already a division.) But that's not all.

Already at the beginning of 2023, an additional decision was made to form one army corps (about 40 thousand), 7 divisions, 19 brigades, 49 regiments, and one flotilla. The new army corps is, apparently, the 7th corps, which forms the basis of the "North" group, designed to protect our borders from the Belgorod to Bryansk regions. It is currently in the combat testing phase.

On average, using the 25th Army as an example, we can say that from the decision to the deployment of a fully combat-ready army to the front, it takes us a little less than a year in the conditions of the Special Military Operation. And now here is an interesting point: Based on what we saw in the Pokrovsk-Avdeevsky direction, let's look at what we have in other directions. We see how one section of the front after another is gradually waking up.

First, the Avdeevka-Pokrovsk direction was launched by two armies. Also, the Chasov Yar direction became active, but this was clearly a diversionary attack, because we still have just 2 armies of the "West" group working there. Then we have the new activity in the Kharkov direction - the "North" group (1 corps). The “Center” group expanded to seven shock armies and opened a second direction – the Toretsk sector. Eventually, the Ugledar direction woke up. The "East" group started to become more active here (4 combined arms armies, another army corps, five marine brigades, and two special forces brigades). Moreover, today it is already known that the Ugledar offensive began as soon as five marine brigades and two special forces brigades completed their reorganization into full-fledged shock divisions. Thus, we have a total of 4 armies plus seven shock divisions in this direction.

Let's move on. We have the Zaporozhye-Kherson direction under steam. Everything is interesting here too: 3 combined arms armies and 4 airborne assault divisions, plus two more marine brigades, are also undergoing reorganization into divisions. (Here, we are also not counting five special brigades.)

That is, if we take the regular pace for opening new sections of the front, then the Zaporozhye and then the Kherson directions can be opened at any moment.

If we take it as a whole, the number of strike units has grown approximately fourfold since the beginning of the Special Military Operation, and now there is another new increase in the army's staff strength.

Let me remind you that the first decree of the President on increasing the size of the army from August 25, 2022 allowed an additional increase in the number of military personnel by 137 thousand people (mobilized ones are not counted here), the second, in December 2023 - by another 170 thousand, and now, finally, the latest new decree increases personnel by 180 thousand.

Now translate this into the actual number of new and, most importantly, real shock armies, divisions, brigades, and regiments at the front.

Ukrops, it's not even a fluffy animal with a famous name that has come to you, but some kind of bony, ugly monster. Baba Yaga mixed with Koschei riding on Mecha-Godzilla. In short, you've had enough of jumping around on your Maidan.

Here, I want to say that, in this case, I am writing only about conventional infantry units. What a disgrace, I can not leave out what is happening in our aviation or missile-artillery echelon! But I'll write about this "delicacy" in the following parts.

This is precisely the difference between the two approaches: The boorish one - with squeals for PR, on the fly without a long plan, and the thoughtful one - intelligent, systematic, and scientific.

This is what the Russian science of winning is like!