The hegemon is going down Part 1: The US Navy

By Marat Khairullin

The hegemon is going down, and if we measure it by historical standards, very quickly.

The basis of US military power is dominance over the oceans. This is achieved through aircraft carrier strike groups (CSGs), an excellent nuclear submarine fleet, and, in principle, a large number of surface ships. It is impossible to analyze in detail how rapidly all three of these main components of US military power are deteriorating in one article. Therefore, in the first part, let's focus on the CSG. We will talk about other aspects in the following materials of this series of journalistic investigations.

What does military intelligence see in the Middle East that we don’t?

Currently, the US carrier fleet has 11 nominally serviceable carriers - 10 previous generation Nimitz and one of the newest Gerald Ford series. The events around Israel, which have been going on for almost a year, show that the US has simply become critically decrepit in military terms, and right before our eyes. The fact is that the doctrine guiding America's CSGs assumes that the US should always have three aircraft carriers ready for combat, which they can send to any part of the world at any time. Moreover, two aircraft carriers are alwayd on duty in the Western Hemisphere, one in the Eastern.

In the fall of 2017, Trump sent 4 aircraft carrier groups to the shores of North Korea. In the fall of 2023, when the Israeli crisis occurred (Israel, let me remind you, is a much more important country for the United States than North Korea), the hegemon, with difficulty, one might even say with a groan, sent two CSGs. Additionally, experts noted the very short service life of each specific CSG off of the coast of Israel.

Too often, experts say, the US is shuffling its arks of democracy in this crisis. On average, the combat duty period of one CSG barely reaches two months. Only in one case was it about three months. This is despite the fact that the US naval doctrine provides for the cast-iron presence of each CSG on combat duty at sea for at least six months, and if necessary, up to eight.

Another fact: for the first time in many years, the United States left the Eastern Hemisphere without a strike group, having been forced to pull the aircraft carrier on duty from there to the Red Sea. And, as I believe, the US will soon be forced to leave only one CSG in the relevant, one might even say, fateful crisis for them in the Middle East. That is, no matter how you look at it, the Hegemon is no longer the same. What is happening?

How Iran is Taunting the US:

Before we move on, let us once again note that Iran’s previous, so to speak, targeting attack on Israel demonstrated the latter’s critical dependence on the CSGs.

The fact is that the group includes a powerful air defense detachment. This is a cruiser (or even two) and three or four destroyers. The cruiser has 120 universal launchers. The destroyers have 90. These are used, among other things, for air defense missiles. Calculate the power of the salvo at the moment yourself. But even with this serious force, Iran managed to penetrate both the air defense of Israel proper as well as that of the CSG.

Now look: Iran is threatening some kind of terrible, incredible response, the crisis in Gaza is not dying down, military action in Lebanon could start at any moment, and the Houthis are constantly launching something. That is, Israel has been kept, so to speak, in a tense state for almost a year now.

This country is a key ally of the US in the Middle East. By abandoning it, they will lose their real influence in the region, through which most of the world trade travels, many times over. While there is such tension there, whether you like it or not, the hegemon has to keep its CSGs there. Iran is taking advantage of this, because then the usual arithmetic comes into play.

According to figures from publicly available sources, one day of a standard CSG at sea (without actual combat operations - this is important) costs the American budget 6 million dollars. Two AUGs, respectively, will cost 12. But here is an important clarification: this data was published in the 90s, when the US was openly bragging about its power.

In 2021, the US Government Accountability Office published the following figures: since 2011, the number of hours that the country's Navy ships spent at sea has decreased almost by two thirds (remember the real figures for the presence of CSGs off the coast of Israel), and they have become more expensive, attention, almost by a factor of 4!

That is, apparently, when the CSG is just hanging out at sea, this voyage costs the US budget a colossal amount. The main thing is not even this - the same report of the US Government Accountability Office claims that delays in technical maintenance of one vessel (on average) have also increased by almost 4 times - from five days to 19. This, let me remind you, is for 2021. Considering how many US naval shipyards have gone bankrupt and closed since then, and considering the growing avalanche-like outflow of qualified technical specialists from both the Navy and related industries, it can be predicted that the US will face a very big problem in terms of quickly carrying out mandatory technical maintenance of the CSGs after combat duty.

We will discuss the situation in the US shipbuilding industry in detail in one of our next publications. For now, it remains to add that, on average, American Navy crews are only 85 percent staffed. If we take, for example, the crews working in the CSGs in the Middle East, they serve in a state of almost constant emergency.

It is no coincidence that a number of sources note a critical increase in emergency situations on board aircraft carriers during combat service. This subsequently leads to an outflow of specialists - after almost every sea voyage, more and more crew members want to take rest on land. The US Navy is finding it increasingly difficult to retain highly qualified personnel on board. Thus, it can be stated that Iran does not even need to fuss and arrange a real war. It is enough to simply "call" Israel all sorts of names and wait until the hegemon drowns on its own.