Preparing for World War III? Or maybe Trump is smarter after all...
Article by Marat Khairullin
Trump's appointments to his future cabinet are one of the most discussed topics. Moreover, military experts point out one feature: all the appointees have a clear pro-Israel position. The general narrative is this: Trump loves Israel and hates Iran. Therefore, he will unleash a war with Iran. Russia will stand up for Iran - we are about to conclude a mutual defense treaty with them that is similar to the treaty with North Korea. Thus, we are all flying into World War III together. To what extent do these expectations correspond to reality?
Is Trump's team really that stupid that they would get involved in something that is obviously predictable, especially after the "new Vietnam" in Ukraine?
To at least imagine the direction in which US foreign policy will be headed under Trump, let's list a few important facts:
First, Trump's team sees one of its main tasks as a sharp reduction in government spending and ineffective bureaucracy. Let's look at the numbers again. What the US budget was spent on in 2024: out of $6.75 trillion, exactly $3.2 trillion went to social spending, healthcare, and the Medicare program (the national health insurance program in the US for people aged 65 and over). Another $900 billion or so is pure interest on the debt, and it will continue to grow. National defense is the same. That makes $5 trillion. That leaves $1.75 trillion for everything else. Roads, education, daycare, etc.
The US budget revenue is about the same five trillion (slightly less). This year the US printed almost 2 trillion dollars to cover this deficit. But this is only part of the "still life." In America, there is such a department - the Department of Veterans Affairs. Almost 500 thousand people work there. There is also the Department of Defense and three separate ministries associated with it - the Navy, the Air Force, and the Army. Yes, friends, you heard right, that's correct - 4 structures often duplicating each other. Almost 800 thousand bureaucrats work there. In total, together with the Department of Veterans Affairs, there are one million three hundred thousand officials. In all of the US armed forces, there are one million three hundred thousand people. That's how you learn to saw off the money, gentlemen - there is one official for every soldier.
The average annual salary in these departments is $100 thousand. Calculate how much it is in total yourself. With such a state apparatus, the country lives in debt. This is what Elon Musk is going to try to fight. We must sincerely wish him luck.
Secondly, the US military is, to put it mildly, not quite what it used to be. It is still just warming up in the Middle East, and the hegemon already has problem after problem. For example, after combat duty off the coast of Israel, the crew of the newest aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford began to be downsized en masse. With a total shortage of 20 percent, an additional 600 people signed off at the first port. Missiles are running out, planes are not flying very well, soldiers simply do not want to fight. A separate text should be written about the results of the deployment of US armed forces in the current conflict in the Middle East - this is another catastrophe after the new "Ukrainian Vietnam." And now on the horizon there is a "mess" with Iran, behind which looms that same Russia...
One can also note the migration crisis in the USA, the growing deindustrialization of the country, the stratification of society, the crumbling infrastructure, the bankruptcy of allies, and so on and so forth. By and large, the first two points would be enough to make you think about whether it is worth getting involved in another war, especially without finishing the one that has already started. The US is facing a whole bunch of problems today, and the best thing the hegemon can do now is to try to reconcile Israel with everyone, if this is a family matter for Trump. And then focus on the main issues.
I personally like Trump and Musk - people with humor and brains. Therefore, I bet that Trump (out of love for Israel) will not get involved in a war with Iran. Then Musk will get the opportunity to do something really important - to actually save the USA.
The Arrogant Aggressive West is broke as fuck. We eat shit. We starve. We sleep on cardboard and stale dreams. We think we are so great . I don't...
Ever read Asimov's original Foundation novels?
No matter what, the Empire was going to fall. How can America save itself, requiring a change of course, when all the forces that put it into this direction are still built-in to the system?
Even if it had 4 years of course-correction (And lets face it, Elon and Trump are not that team, Tulsi, JFK, Stein and Bernie may have had a small chance), the System will just reassert itself. It is now embedded at every level of the society, education, media, private wealth.
As soon as the robber-barons of Rome ran out of places to steal from, the Empire collapsed. The unbridled greed at the top - like floating turds - ensures the society will be hollowed out, and will collapse from within.
Collapse is built into the very memetic structures.
Just like exploitative-capitalism (As opposed to cooperative-ownership capitalism) will inevitably go through "Crises".
The ruling classes want 'Happy slaves' willing to survive on peanuts and cast-offs. Generally, people are not happy with that.
This is why the US is racing towards a technocratic, technologically complete dictatorship.
I'm SO SURE Trump and Musk aren't down with that plan.
/sarc.
At most, they might cut some military bloat. More likely, they'll cut the essential aid that is keeping Americans alive, and ensure a revolution comes sooner.
And then we all have to pray that the lunatics in the US only use their WMDs on each other.
The country is a basket case that makes the USSR look well-managed.