However, people like Dugin have taken a much more somber tone about the situation. They even speak openly that Russia was betrayed, that it should have responded harshly to the Turkish downing of the Russian jet fighter in 2015. Time will show who is right.
I have a question that concerns Iran. More and more there is a rumor that political forces within the country and the government are pro-West (let's say US) and that Iran will bow to the weak pressures that the Trump team will exert.
The Arab-Muslim world is made up of a superposition of ethnic strains and religious dogmas between which alliances, rivalries and betrayals are done and undone.
We have seen how Iran has responded to Israeli aggression. We have seen its withdrawal – or distance – from support in Palestine and Lebanon (though it seems it continued to back Syria who declined its offer like all other offers of support).
We can find rational reasons for these positions if we consider that Iran is one of the adults in the room and seasoned strategists on the geopolitical scene.
But we can also assume an indecision or internal forces that would lead it to tip over to the wrong side.
if you think of it from Russian (fairly remote observer) perspective
- Israel paid and paid a lot to get the very ISIS that hates Israel right on their border. brilliant operation! very smart. and there would not be a central government to fight them either. You thought HAMAS was bad? just wait.
- Turkey paid to get Kurdistan going (now with no central government in Damascus that was restricting and limiting it). Another brilliant decision by sultan.
- Russia will shift air assets back to former Ukraine
And if the belt and road going thru the Central Stans don't work out , it can still go thru Russia , thru NovoRossiya and on to Hungary, Serbia etc. I also noticed that the Turkish lira has gained 5 lira against the dollar already - a reward I'm sure. But who is going to feed all those Syrians that Erdogan is going to send packing? Or will he call up Bi Bi and ask for some more genocidal help?
Thank you for the excellent article. Corresponds exactly to my opinion. In addition, Putin has already taken precautions regarding bases. Just yesterday I read a very small article that the Russians have started to build 3 air bases in Libya with General Haftar. Large runways are already in place. A port for the supply of warships is also likely to follow very soon. Yes, that's Putin, always think much further than the West.
Finally another perspective, thank you for sharing your knowledge from the Russian POV. Now I can make a well informed decision on what I believe to be the truth, sadly this is how News used to be. Reporting gave us facts from opposing POV and we the people listened, used our critical thinking to form an educated opinion. Feels good 😊
interesting perspective and some truths to it as well... if these same folks go after iran, that will certainly blow a hole in russia and putins larger plans and that is a distinct possibility here..russia could sit syria out, but will it sit iran out as well??
i am not sure what type of a friend turkey is here for russia either.. they seem very willing to play both sides of usa-russia dynamics.. i suppose it is all for a price.. and yes - turkey has millions of syrian refugees, but i suspect they'll be getting more instead of less here and those that are in turkey sure aren't going to want to go back, so how does that work out for erdogan??
Agree, I figured that Erdogan saw that the E U is broke, and since he was getting huge funding for those refugees, he won't be for long, so his land grab and sending the Syrians packing , fits into his agenda. my 2 rubles worth - james.
Very insightful piece, thank you. Perhaps I am a fantasist, but I keep feeling there is another dimension here, namely:
1. Jews have punched beyond their demographic weight literally for millennia but often involving themselves in the political leadership of the nations in which they ply their international commerce and lately who use their finance system which controls much of the world's money - pardon me, credit.
2. They are a deeply restless people who have mythologized a homeland, a nation of their own, from which they have been banished and for which they deeply yearn. They have a collective dream bound up with their long tribal histories and religions.
3. The founding of Israel in 1947 was an imperfect job. Maybe it was the best they could do at the time or maybe those leading the negotiations lacked moral and political vision, but it was a mess from the get-go and nothing much has changed since then. Meanwhile, partly in order to leverage influence from the international bodies they need to make things happen, they have intensified their influence operations in most leading developing nations the past few decades.
4. Their driving obsession involves making Israel whole, a State for Jews populated by Jews, which means both expelling the Palestinians who share it with them in a bizarrely configured arrangement and also expanding the territory more in line with Biblical prophecy or, more likely, to gain more oil and gas resources or some such.
5. This driving obsession combined with their outsized influences in most Western governments, which include sometimes manipulation campaigns to effect election outcomes, increase their influence and so forth, have gone too far and are causing great damage to their host nations, something which has happened many times in the past in various nations.
6. So the host nations have an interest in assuaging this driving Jewish need to further settle their eschatological destiny in the homeland known as Israel.
7. A deal may have gone down of late which boils down to: you give us the Israel we want, with no more Palestinians and expanded borders and good commercial relations which others in the region and we will stop messing with your domestic affairs and allow you to return to relative normalcy in the US, Europe, Russia and the Middle East. Perhaps they will also be given what is left of Ukraine, which is their traditional homeland off and on since the time of the Khazars in the eighth century until the Rus pushed them out of Kiev and made them a more dispersed people with problematic status and quite a bit of animus to nurse.
8. Therefore, the sudden collapse of Syria indicates some sort of deal has gone down with some sort of significant realignment. Russia may well have gained in the way you say, but also the stone in the geopolitical shoe, which is Jewish grievance and restlessness, may be in the process of being removed to the benefit of all.
The Jews get their State without having to share it; Russians have their sphere of influence and NATO will soon back off since the push behind NATO expansionism has mainly been this Zionist ambition using seeded conflict as leverage. They will climb down from all this in return for finally getting their country. America will be able to effect needed reforms, clarify their foreign policy and even become a dynamic, willing member of a new multipolar order, the dominant civilization state in the Americas, an entire marvelous continent linked to the world via both Pacific and Atlantic oceans.
As I said, I may be fantasizing. But one arrow in Israel's quiver is her outsized influence in most leading Western governments driving their ceaselessly belligerent, aka hegemonic, foreign policy, stirring up endless trouble. They are offering to end these troubles if they get a better situation in the Middle East. This will probably largely fall into place between now and January 20th 2025 when Trump's inauguration can serve as cover for the fact that all this has mainly been a Zionist driven geopolitical crisis all along.
"The founding of Israel in 1947 was an imperfect job. "
Founding a country to perfection now, by finalizing the genocide and ethnic cleansing, for the entire world to see, with full records, lodged with the International Court of Justice and with the International Criminal Court is not the way to go, I would think. The blood libel will live for another 1000 years and this time will be based on actual facts and testimonies (i.e. western based doctors).
israel has managed to successfully convince usa-uk and much of the western world of their special status, to the point committing genocide is overlooked, or downplayed... what does that say about the west or israel at this point?? and it was 1948, not 1947... coming out of the balfour agreement from much earlier..
Grok says: "Yes, you are correct. In 1947, the United Nations General Assembly adopted Resolution 181(II) on November 29, which is commonly known as the UN Partition Plan for Palestine." So it depends what event you are tracking which year you pick.
As to genocide etc., I am trying to look at the situation dispassionately and trying to figure out what the various parties want. Which of course doesn't mean that some are strong and others are weak and generally the latter get screwed. Since the 1940's the Palestinian locals have been in a weak position and condition, not being a militarized Empire but rather a somewhat neglected region famous for olive oil and oranges. The Zionists came with with big bucks and big plans.
But again, dispassionately: what do the main players want, Israel, Russia, Syria, the US, Lebanon, various factions like shia, sunni, alawites etc? I don't know nuttin' about the local nuances there but what I was arguing above, rightly or wrongly, is that possibly the US is all-in with Israel in order to get the neocons off their back. Trump, for example, who is extremely Zionist-supporting has several time made disparaging remarks about the neocons having too much influence. Most of his picks, especially in foreign affairs, are known Zionist-lovers.
But what if the idea is to give the Israelis what they want in return for them learning how to climb down and stop driving so much international tension and pressure in order to bully their host governments into furthering their ambitions in Israel, ambitions which have been thwarted continuously since the mid 1940's because the initial arrangement was rushed. There was concerted resistance to the idea from every single Arab State but they went ahead with their resolutions anyway because they could get majority votes. A bad business, especially for the Palestinians.
I think the deal might be something like: let us finally get rid of the Palestinians and give us a bit more land like parts of Syria and Lebanon, and we will stop hassling everyone (at least for a couple of generations). How would the world change if that is the deal? It would usher in a multipolar golden age, possibly. Of course many believe that the US has its own genocidal agendas and is an Evil Empire always bent on conquest. Possibly true, but wouldn't it be nice to not have the obsessive, well organized drive from the Zionists always pushing, pushing, pushing? We have never known such a condition. And if we could get fair elections for example - because they don't have to exert controlling influence on both parties and keep stacking the deck in their favour etc. - the American people could provide feedback about foreign policy and such and probably America could have a shot at being a normal, relatively sane nation.
Again, I am probably fantasizing. But a big deal went down, almost certainly, and that means it involved US, Europe, Syria, Russia, Iran, Turkey and Israel. The agreement happened, then everything just shifted with very little actual combat. My thesis is the essence of the deal if finally giving Israel what they want in return for peace and normalcy. It will screw the Palestinians but a) that's a relatively small price to pay and b) more of them will live and c) might even live well in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt if given a handsome exile package from the IMF or whomever. Life as a Palestinian in Israel is pretty ghastly after all, so on humanitarian grounds although unjust and unfair etc, it will lessen the injustice and cruelty currently meted out daily.
How is strengthening the USA and their Zionist viper strengthening Russia? I read your commentary, but it sounds like the same grasping at straws that I'm hearing everywhere.
Russia has now (seemingly) lost its only foreign naval and air bases. It lost an old diplomatic ally. How are these a positive?
In the meantime, Israel wasted no time seizing even more formerly Syrian territory. You speak as if Erdogan can be trusted. He is NATO. He has proven at every turn that he is a liar and a backstabber whose word is as worthless as that of the USA.
My compliments Marat. You see things very clearly where others do not.
I'm not sure that all of the benefits you hope for will come Russia's way, after they let Assad fall. But it's indisputable that not only Russia, but China, Iran and Hezbollah too did not lift a finger to prevent Assad's toppling once things were in motion. You can dress that up nicely if you like, but at the bottom it's straightforward real politik. No doubt there will be advantages coming Russia's way in return.
Assad's Syria opposed Israel and the USA and on that basis alone he was championed by some. But the Assad regime were not the "good guys" to their own people. At the end of the day, he was a despot, and one not averse to great human rights abuses. Critically, he was a despot that represented only a small percentage of Syria's people. Assad is an Alawite oligarch; Alawis are an offshoot of Shia Islam. They make up only 10% of Syria's population. Fully 75% of Syria is Sunni Muslim, as are the rebels who just took over the country.
Syria under Assad had no future. Though we may wish it to be otherwise, that is the reality. Face it and move on.
The first one I've read since last night which gives a 360 degree geopolitical view of Assad's fall from Russia's perspective.
I suspected Mr Putin had not been taken by surprise but thought he'd just chosen to let the imperialists have Syria in order to be in a better position to protect Iran when Mileikovsky finally tricks those idiot americans to back a full-on military play there (ie. not risking Russia's military fight in 3 countries which those americans and hyenas in London would just love).
Your hypothesis/analysis makes more sense in all the circumstances, especially how shrewd he has always been in the past.
Personally I have no understanding of the inner workings of the Kremlin. Off course I refrain from making comparisons of two different leaders from two different countries. What will be the repercussions down the road nobdy knows. Either way it is an excellent article overall. Given Russian history ever since Putin came into power we should be grateful that he is a very balanced and patient man. Putin draws great insight not just of Russia but of the world in general in a historical context. I just hope calmer minds prevail instead of fueling the embers the exist.
The Russia phobia that is currently prevalent in the west and the demonisation of the other is extremely dangerous since the insanity has gone way too far.
Very informative. Thx very much.
However, people like Dugin have taken a much more somber tone about the situation. They even speak openly that Russia was betrayed, that it should have responded harshly to the Turkish downing of the Russian jet fighter in 2015. Time will show who is right.
I have a question that concerns Iran. More and more there is a rumor that political forces within the country and the government are pro-West (let's say US) and that Iran will bow to the weak pressures that the Trump team will exert.
The Arab-Muslim world is made up of a superposition of ethnic strains and religious dogmas between which alliances, rivalries and betrayals are done and undone.
We have seen how Iran has responded to Israeli aggression. We have seen its withdrawal – or distance – from support in Palestine and Lebanon (though it seems it continued to back Syria who declined its offer like all other offers of support).
We can find rational reasons for these positions if we consider that Iran is one of the adults in the room and seasoned strategists on the geopolitical scene.
But we can also assume an indecision or internal forces that would lead it to tip over to the wrong side.
Do you have a position on this point?
Thanks.
Fantastic article
Unfortunately this time your analysis is very poor
I would recommend you watch these videos:
Jacques Baud: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KotIIu0NTgI
Alastair Crooke: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgEgHVtRbg4
and read Simplicius' analysis https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/syrias-fall-in-depth-analysis
if you think of it from Russian (fairly remote observer) perspective
- Israel paid and paid a lot to get the very ISIS that hates Israel right on their border. brilliant operation! very smart. and there would not be a central government to fight them either. You thought HAMAS was bad? just wait.
- Turkey paid to get Kurdistan going (now with no central government in Damascus that was restricting and limiting it). Another brilliant decision by sultan.
- Russia will shift air assets back to former Ukraine
And if the belt and road going thru the Central Stans don't work out , it can still go thru Russia , thru NovoRossiya and on to Hungary, Serbia etc. I also noticed that the Turkish lira has gained 5 lira against the dollar already - a reward I'm sure. But who is going to feed all those Syrians that Erdogan is going to send packing? Or will he call up Bi Bi and ask for some more genocidal help?
Thank you for the excellent article. Corresponds exactly to my opinion. In addition, Putin has already taken precautions regarding bases. Just yesterday I read a very small article that the Russians have started to build 3 air bases in Libya with General Haftar. Large runways are already in place. A port for the supply of warships is also likely to follow very soon. Yes, that's Putin, always think much further than the West.
Interesting analysis but leaves one wandering what Iran won in the process. Closeness to Syria?
Israel will be distracted by the jihadis on their border, who lets be honest, Erdagan will not be able to control.
Finally another perspective, thank you for sharing your knowledge from the Russian POV. Now I can make a well informed decision on what I believe to be the truth, sadly this is how News used to be. Reporting gave us facts from opposing POV and we the people listened, used our critical thinking to form an educated opinion. Feels good 😊
interesting perspective and some truths to it as well... if these same folks go after iran, that will certainly blow a hole in russia and putins larger plans and that is a distinct possibility here..russia could sit syria out, but will it sit iran out as well??
i am not sure what type of a friend turkey is here for russia either.. they seem very willing to play both sides of usa-russia dynamics.. i suppose it is all for a price.. and yes - turkey has millions of syrian refugees, but i suspect they'll be getting more instead of less here and those that are in turkey sure aren't going to want to go back, so how does that work out for erdogan??
thanks for your posts..
Agree, I figured that Erdogan saw that the E U is broke, and since he was getting huge funding for those refugees, he won't be for long, so his land grab and sending the Syrians packing , fits into his agenda. my 2 rubles worth - james.
Very insightful piece, thank you. Perhaps I am a fantasist, but I keep feeling there is another dimension here, namely:
1. Jews have punched beyond their demographic weight literally for millennia but often involving themselves in the political leadership of the nations in which they ply their international commerce and lately who use their finance system which controls much of the world's money - pardon me, credit.
2. They are a deeply restless people who have mythologized a homeland, a nation of their own, from which they have been banished and for which they deeply yearn. They have a collective dream bound up with their long tribal histories and religions.
3. The founding of Israel in 1947 was an imperfect job. Maybe it was the best they could do at the time or maybe those leading the negotiations lacked moral and political vision, but it was a mess from the get-go and nothing much has changed since then. Meanwhile, partly in order to leverage influence from the international bodies they need to make things happen, they have intensified their influence operations in most leading developing nations the past few decades.
4. Their driving obsession involves making Israel whole, a State for Jews populated by Jews, which means both expelling the Palestinians who share it with them in a bizarrely configured arrangement and also expanding the territory more in line with Biblical prophecy or, more likely, to gain more oil and gas resources or some such.
5. This driving obsession combined with their outsized influences in most Western governments, which include sometimes manipulation campaigns to effect election outcomes, increase their influence and so forth, have gone too far and are causing great damage to their host nations, something which has happened many times in the past in various nations.
6. So the host nations have an interest in assuaging this driving Jewish need to further settle their eschatological destiny in the homeland known as Israel.
7. A deal may have gone down of late which boils down to: you give us the Israel we want, with no more Palestinians and expanded borders and good commercial relations which others in the region and we will stop messing with your domestic affairs and allow you to return to relative normalcy in the US, Europe, Russia and the Middle East. Perhaps they will also be given what is left of Ukraine, which is their traditional homeland off and on since the time of the Khazars in the eighth century until the Rus pushed them out of Kiev and made them a more dispersed people with problematic status and quite a bit of animus to nurse.
8. Therefore, the sudden collapse of Syria indicates some sort of deal has gone down with some sort of significant realignment. Russia may well have gained in the way you say, but also the stone in the geopolitical shoe, which is Jewish grievance and restlessness, may be in the process of being removed to the benefit of all.
The Jews get their State without having to share it; Russians have their sphere of influence and NATO will soon back off since the push behind NATO expansionism has mainly been this Zionist ambition using seeded conflict as leverage. They will climb down from all this in return for finally getting their country. America will be able to effect needed reforms, clarify their foreign policy and even become a dynamic, willing member of a new multipolar order, the dominant civilization state in the Americas, an entire marvelous continent linked to the world via both Pacific and Atlantic oceans.
As I said, I may be fantasizing. But one arrow in Israel's quiver is her outsized influence in most leading Western governments driving their ceaselessly belligerent, aka hegemonic, foreign policy, stirring up endless trouble. They are offering to end these troubles if they get a better situation in the Middle East. This will probably largely fall into place between now and January 20th 2025 when Trump's inauguration can serve as cover for the fact that all this has mainly been a Zionist driven geopolitical crisis all along.
"The founding of Israel in 1947 was an imperfect job. "
Founding a country to perfection now, by finalizing the genocide and ethnic cleansing, for the entire world to see, with full records, lodged with the International Court of Justice and with the International Criminal Court is not the way to go, I would think. The blood libel will live for another 1000 years and this time will be based on actual facts and testimonies (i.e. western based doctors).
“Israel has punched above its weight”
I mean, give Belgium the amount of money and weapons Israel receives and I bet they’d conquer Western Europe in a short while.
israel has managed to successfully convince usa-uk and much of the western world of their special status, to the point committing genocide is overlooked, or downplayed... what does that say about the west or israel at this point?? and it was 1948, not 1947... coming out of the balfour agreement from much earlier..
Grok says: "Yes, you are correct. In 1947, the United Nations General Assembly adopted Resolution 181(II) on November 29, which is commonly known as the UN Partition Plan for Palestine." So it depends what event you are tracking which year you pick.
As to genocide etc., I am trying to look at the situation dispassionately and trying to figure out what the various parties want. Which of course doesn't mean that some are strong and others are weak and generally the latter get screwed. Since the 1940's the Palestinian locals have been in a weak position and condition, not being a militarized Empire but rather a somewhat neglected region famous for olive oil and oranges. The Zionists came with with big bucks and big plans.
But again, dispassionately: what do the main players want, Israel, Russia, Syria, the US, Lebanon, various factions like shia, sunni, alawites etc? I don't know nuttin' about the local nuances there but what I was arguing above, rightly or wrongly, is that possibly the US is all-in with Israel in order to get the neocons off their back. Trump, for example, who is extremely Zionist-supporting has several time made disparaging remarks about the neocons having too much influence. Most of his picks, especially in foreign affairs, are known Zionist-lovers.
But what if the idea is to give the Israelis what they want in return for them learning how to climb down and stop driving so much international tension and pressure in order to bully their host governments into furthering their ambitions in Israel, ambitions which have been thwarted continuously since the mid 1940's because the initial arrangement was rushed. There was concerted resistance to the idea from every single Arab State but they went ahead with their resolutions anyway because they could get majority votes. A bad business, especially for the Palestinians.
I think the deal might be something like: let us finally get rid of the Palestinians and give us a bit more land like parts of Syria and Lebanon, and we will stop hassling everyone (at least for a couple of generations). How would the world change if that is the deal? It would usher in a multipolar golden age, possibly. Of course many believe that the US has its own genocidal agendas and is an Evil Empire always bent on conquest. Possibly true, but wouldn't it be nice to not have the obsessive, well organized drive from the Zionists always pushing, pushing, pushing? We have never known such a condition. And if we could get fair elections for example - because they don't have to exert controlling influence on both parties and keep stacking the deck in their favour etc. - the American people could provide feedback about foreign policy and such and probably America could have a shot at being a normal, relatively sane nation.
Again, I am probably fantasizing. But a big deal went down, almost certainly, and that means it involved US, Europe, Syria, Russia, Iran, Turkey and Israel. The agreement happened, then everything just shifted with very little actual combat. My thesis is the essence of the deal if finally giving Israel what they want in return for peace and normalcy. It will screw the Palestinians but a) that's a relatively small price to pay and b) more of them will live and c) might even live well in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt if given a handsome exile package from the IMF or whomever. Life as a Palestinian in Israel is pretty ghastly after all, so on humanitarian grounds although unjust and unfair etc, it will lessen the injustice and cruelty currently meted out daily.
Just a possibility.
Brilliant!
How is strengthening the USA and their Zionist viper strengthening Russia? I read your commentary, but it sounds like the same grasping at straws that I'm hearing everywhere.
Russia has now (seemingly) lost its only foreign naval and air bases. It lost an old diplomatic ally. How are these a positive?
In the meantime, Israel wasted no time seizing even more formerly Syrian territory. You speak as if Erdogan can be trusted. He is NATO. He has proven at every turn that he is a liar and a backstabber whose word is as worthless as that of the USA.
I fail to see anything in your piece but spin.
My compliments Marat. You see things very clearly where others do not.
I'm not sure that all of the benefits you hope for will come Russia's way, after they let Assad fall. But it's indisputable that not only Russia, but China, Iran and Hezbollah too did not lift a finger to prevent Assad's toppling once things were in motion. You can dress that up nicely if you like, but at the bottom it's straightforward real politik. No doubt there will be advantages coming Russia's way in return.
Assad's Syria opposed Israel and the USA and on that basis alone he was championed by some. But the Assad regime were not the "good guys" to their own people. At the end of the day, he was a despot, and one not averse to great human rights abuses. Critically, he was a despot that represented only a small percentage of Syria's people. Assad is an Alawite oligarch; Alawis are an offshoot of Shia Islam. They make up only 10% of Syria's population. Fully 75% of Syria is Sunni Muslim, as are the rebels who just took over the country.
Syria under Assad had no future. Though we may wish it to be otherwise, that is the reality. Face it and move on.
"Assad...... At the end of the day, he was a despot, and one not averse to great human rights abuses"
Please post links supporting your erroneous claim re human rights abuses.
Great read and excellent article.
The first one I've read since last night which gives a 360 degree geopolitical view of Assad's fall from Russia's perspective.
I suspected Mr Putin had not been taken by surprise but thought he'd just chosen to let the imperialists have Syria in order to be in a better position to protect Iran when Mileikovsky finally tricks those idiot americans to back a full-on military play there (ie. not risking Russia's military fight in 3 countries which those americans and hyenas in London would just love).
Your hypothesis/analysis makes more sense in all the circumstances, especially how shrewd he has always been in the past.
Great work.
Personally I have no understanding of the inner workings of the Kremlin. Off course I refrain from making comparisons of two different leaders from two different countries. What will be the repercussions down the road nobdy knows. Either way it is an excellent article overall. Given Russian history ever since Putin came into power we should be grateful that he is a very balanced and patient man. Putin draws great insight not just of Russia but of the world in general in a historical context. I just hope calmer minds prevail instead of fueling the embers the exist.
The Russia phobia that is currently prevalent in the west and the demonisation of the other is extremely dangerous since the insanity has gone way too far.
Peace!