Weapons Are The New Oil

Parts 1 and 2 by Marat Khairullin

Picture from Rostech website. KA-2 aka Alligator and TOS heavy flamethrowing system

Part 1

Weapons - the new “oil” of the 21st century (text version)

The era of poker, where Russia is the main favorite:

Ater the end of the SMO, Russia will most likely become one of the root participants in the international arms market. A strong foundation, in this case, will mean that countries that are preparing for real conflicts will rely specifically on Russian experience and try to buy Russian weapons of victory. The global arms market in 2023 was a whopping $780 billion. This is twice the budget of our country. Since 2014, the figure has almost doubled and promises to cross the 800 billion mark this year. The USA dominates with a figure of 380 billion, our country is in second place with a figure of about 80 plus billion. It is believed that in percentage terms we have lost approximately 53 percent of our market share over 10 years. Then we controlled approximately 24 percent of the world market, now it is 11, but in real terms, our revenue has almost doubled (it was forty plus, now it is 80 plus billion).

As the market has grown over ten years, this share was occupied by the United States, filling it with outright rubbish due to the cynical cannibalism of the market of its partners, which ultimately led to the weakening of their entire bloc, which is what we saw in Ukraine. Since 2014, Russia began to focus on the domestic market, maintaining the dynamics of growth in net cash flow. So, according to the most pessimistic forecasts, immediately after the end of the Special Military Operation (we see this on the horizon of two years), our country will increase arms exports to 100 billion plus dollars, the necessary production site for this has been created. And thanks to real combat testing and victory, our weapons immediately fall into the luxury category - that is, if you want to win, fight like the Russians.

Russian products in China are viewed as premium by default, because they're dependable. Russians are honest and don’t put any crap in kefir. It's the same with weapons. The most important thing is that the amount of 100 billion plus is a third of our country’s budget. And on the horizon of five years after the SMO, they predict an increase in sales to one hundred and fifty billion - a third of the budget and approximately a third of all our exports. That is, this is truly a new “oil”, only high-tech. Moreover, this is a long trend for us - for at least a century. If the arms market begins to shrink, it will be due to expensive and ineffective systems - and these are the systems of United States and its allies. They are pushing mass bullshit onto the market, and they will be rejected. As previous decades of weapon operation show, the longest-lived ones are the Soviet low-cost weapons systems. In addition, in the new world conditions, when the hegemon has total impotence for everything, we become an unambiguous reference point - not the United States and Israel, which are accustomed to winning by building up a total advantage against a frankly weak enemy. Namely us.

If we draw a parallel, before the United States and its allies played openly marked cards and did not bother about it, explaining regular victories by their superiority. Now, more and more players are sitting at the table with a set of plus or minus equal opportunities. The era of more or less honest poker has arrived (considering that poker is, in principle, a way of deception, like war), where Russia will play the role of the card dealer. Of course, after recording victory on the Western Front. And that means a lot of money. There are already several key factors in the world that point precisely to this. There are obvious ones - the world is becoming more and more unstable, and our weapons in the widest range have turned out to be more competitive. There are also non-obvious ones - manufacturers make the biggest profits precisely through high-tech weapons. And as a result of the Ukropian war, we have definitely already surpassed the Americans in this component. For example, the greatest hope of the Western coalition was the HIMARS missiles (M142 and M270 MLRS tracked launchers). But already in the summer of 2022, our air defense everywhere updated and introduced software that makes it possible to shoot down these missiles, and at the end of the year of war, in the middle of the 2023, it was announced that our Pantsir was capable of shooting down 100 percent of American missiles.

Moreover, the initial price of one rocket for HIMARS is 160 thousand (ATACMS starts at 2.3 million). And the price of the Russian anti-missile missile, according to various estimates on the domestic market, is approximately 20 thousand dollars. At the same time, Lockheed Martin, having received additional contracts from the Pentagon to expand the production of installations and missiles, recalculated their cost upward - now missiles are sold for 250 thousand dollars. And our Rostec received an unambiguous government task - to reduce the cost of the Pantsir ammunition while significantly increasing the volume of government assignments. There are no exact figures, but this is built into the government contract. At the same time, the volume of Western missile production for HIMARS is about 10 thousand, while ours for Pantsir is about two hundred thousand plus (unofficial data).

Another hidden factor is that Russia previously adhered to restrictions on the supply of high-tech samples to the foreign market. Moreover, the restrictions were like those imposed on us by the hegemons (it’s like in sports - no one is allowed to use drugs, but Norwegian skiers are allowed, because they are asthmatics). So are the self-restrictions associated with the reorientation of our production to the domestic market in connection with preparations for war. Now, according to Putin’s statements, we will supply serious weapons to the foreign market to all opponents of the United States (previously we did not do this out of politeness). Well, the war is clearly coming to an end, and production capacities are fully heated, and no one is going to curtail them. It is obvious that the world market is waiting for a massive supply of our victorious and battle-tested weapons with the best price-quality ratio.

There is one more factor to consider here. The arms market is very regulated, including an obvious corruption component. For example, the budget of German gunsmiths includes kickbacks to interested parties, they even openly report this to the government. In general, corruption is prohibited in Germany, but to lubricate international partners it is officially possible - these payments are even exempt from taxes. This is a system, and its essence is simple: if you are an ally of the United States, then, please, reinforce your loyalty by purchasing weapons, they will even give you a special loan for this. This is very crude, but in general it is true. And now this system is collapsing along the entire chain. The United States can no longer keep all its satellites in check; the hegemony of the dollar is ending miserably - more and more countries are switching to trading in alternative currencies. This means that any manufacturer can give you a loan to buy their weapons in their currency or in yours, and it will be much more profitable than buying in dollars, where you also spend a lot for the profit for American financiers. In a word, the United States is losing more and more to us.

How the AFU broke:

It’s mid-2024, after two years of war we already understand that we have won: our army is crushing the enemy in all directions. But was it all that easy for us? The titanic tension and pain somehow remained behind the scenes. Let's just remind ourselves once again, using clear numbers, what kind of monster we had to defeat in order to reason so calmly and confidently today. So, in 2022, the Ukrainian army took 25th place in the world ranking and numbered 260 thousand people. Plus about thirty thousand police forces (this is important - I’ll show you why below). In 2023, Ukraine became number one among arms importers in the world with a conventional share of 15 percent, confidently overtaking the main buyers of the global arms market - Qatar, India, Saudi Arabia, etc. And it took third place with a share of 9 percent in 2022. That is, for two years in a row, a huge piece of all the world’s weapons was driven into the Ukraine. This is especially clear in real numbers. In 2017, Ukraine’s military budget was 2.7 billion, in 2019 - five plus, in 2021 - 9.5, and in 2022 already 29 billion. In 2023 - 45 (some estimate 60 plus). The same will apparently happen by the end of 2024. In real numbers it looks like this. First, what happened at the beginning of 2022:

Tanks - 2600

BMP -1300

MLRS - 300 (all Soviet)

Self-propelled guns - 600 (all Soviet)

Towed artillery -1000 (all Soviet)

Airframes: 71 fighters 31 attack aircraft 14 bombers 30 transport 10 reconnaissance

In 22, 23 and 24, the West supplied the AFU 90 plus aircraft. At the same time, another 75-90 will be delivered by the end of 2024.

Additionally, they will also receive:

90 plus helicopters (30 additionally will be delivered by the end of the year)

35 large drones

Tanks - 1000 plus

BMP and AFV (armored fighting vehicles) - 1400

Armored personnel carriers - 3500+

Transport vehicles with mine protection - 1400

Infantry vehicles - 5500+

Towed artillery - 1000+ (modern 600+)

Self-propelled guns - 500+ (all modern)

MLRS - 140 (M142 and M270 about half)

Anti-aircraft guns - 390 +

Self-propelled anti-aircraft guns - 170

Air defense (ground-air system) - about 60 batteries (more than three hundred launchers). About 15 Patriot batteries and 15 NASAMS

Anti-ship missiles -300+

Air-to-air missiles 700+

Heavy surface-to-surface missiles (ATACMS, etc.) - 1000+

Heavy air-to-ground missiles (Storm and Scalp) - 300+

Radars (200+)

Electronic warfare equipment, reconnaissance drones (2000+)

Cargo drones 150+

Engineering vehicles (pontoons, mine spreaders, etc.) 500+

More than a hundred special robots

Marine drones 600+

Even from this list it is clear that in some categories the AFU was armed three or even four times its original size, and back then it didn’t have some categories of weapons at all. That is, in 23-24 we faced a very serious enemy, who was two to three times superior to us in a number of indicators. Moreover, this was a brutally motivated enemy, ready to win by any means. Here's a couple more numbers for you: In addition to the increased number of troops (it is believed that at the peak there were from 800 to a million), in the rear the police forces increased to 100 thousand, and, importantly, the forces of the TCC - to 150 thousand.

That is, the internal security apparatus aimed at suppressing and mobilizing its people amounted to 250 thousand people. These bayonets allow Zelensky to maintain a mobilization level of 30 to 50 thousand people per month for the second year in a row. And even more, only a few countries in the world have a regular troop strength of more than a million, and the Ukraine has been one of these countries for several years. This is who we are fighting with. In other words, the Ukrainians and the West really had every chance, if not to win, then at least to seriously resist and lead the matter to a dead end.

Why are we confidently crushing them now? Of course, on the surface there are three most noticeable factors: the strength of spirit of our people, the superiority of our command school and the superiority of Russian weapons. But there is another one that is not so noticeable and, by the way, carefully disguised by Westerners - this is the general degradation of their technological system in the field of weapons. That is, the picture is bright on the outside, but everything is rotten on the inside. The AFU initially relied on the rotten ones, and they got what they got. Let's put an end to this today, and begin the next program with an analysis of the leaders of the global arms production market.

Weapons are the new “oil”. Part 2

Giants are impotent, or how America will perish:

Let's return to the report of the pro-Western evaluator of the international arms market, the Stockholm Peace Institute (SIPRI), released last April. Here's how American sanitary pads enthusiastically comment on themselves: “The United States has strengthened its global role as an arms supplier, exporting more weapons to more countries than ever before, and this is an important aspect of its foreign policy,” states SIPRI arms transfer program director Matthew George (American, by the way).

This comes at a time when US economic and geopolitical dominance is being challenged by emerging powers. The subtext is clear - the United States is still the hegemon because it supplies weapons to 107 countries, and Russia to only 12. At the same time, Western analysts somehow forgot to point out that in 2023 the United States went through an incredible massacre of its weapons. Perhaps for the first time since World War II. Or maybe for the first time. Because then the US losses in technology were still extended over time, but here in just a year, 45 billion worth of iron was broken (and maybe more, we won’t see the exact numbers, you know). And this is not just junk, but the best in the world, super-duper weapons. The tank is indestructible, the plane is indestructible, the anti-aircraft guns are unmissable, and the Javelins are generally saints.

Russian tanks have crooked tracks, shabby guns, and grimy tankers, but with American weapons everything is like at a parade - a freshly painted Abramych will arrive, devour his fuel tank, and the enemy will run away. And here is such bullshit, the American weapons were literally victimized by their own PR. Because it is, to put it mildly, very difficult to explain how it happened that the best weapons in the world not only do not show results on the battlefield, but were also killed in indecent quantities.

Let me remind you that at the end of the 2022-2023 campaign, the AFU outright beat us in terms of the main quantitative indicators of their army. Formally, they had more equipment and people on the battlefield with aviation being the exception. However, our aviation began to work actively only in the fall of 23, when we properly thinned out the Ukrop air defense - so there was parity here too. But then, if we start from Western propaganda, why such disastrous results. The weapons were better, the coalition had more people, and in the end it was a complete defeat. After all, in reality, the same Himars are not so bad, they’re even very good - they arrived quickly, shot very accurately and hid. How did it happen that since the beginning of 2024, 14 wheeled units and 5 tracked units (M270 MLRS) have already been destroyed?

It is clear that AFU will then be officially made the scapegoat, but we are trying to get to the root of it. The United States sent Ukraine weapons that form the basis of their army (and the army of the Western bloc as a whole). Only aviation remained in the stash. They were provided the whole range - tanks, missile defense systems, artillery, air defense. As I said in the last part, all this is provided in very large quantities, more than, for example, the second largest NATO army, the Turkish, has in service.

Earlier, I named three factors of our victory that lie on the surface - the courage of the people, the superiority of the command school and the superiority of our weapons. But there are still things that are not obvious - first of all, this is the general degradation of US weapons production. And this is very clearly seen in the example of the three main manufacturers of the most advanced American weapons (Himars, Abrams and Patriots). The three weapons giants that produce them - Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics and Raytheon Technologies Corporation - are the three main contractors of the Pentagon and generally the largest weapons manufacturers in the world. They are the main driver of the Ukrainian war. Moreover, they desperately cling to it, since now it is practically the only thing that can keep corporations from collapse.

If you look superficially, then according to the numbers, all three companies are booming, for example, since 2003, the share price of Lockheed Martin has increased more than 10 times - from 41 dollars to four hundred plus.

Over the years, Lockheed has absorbed dozens of different companies, becoming a monopolist in the market in some respects. This is the Pentagon's number one contractor - the package of orders for this year is 44 billion, the number one figure in the world. Not counting international orders. The F-35 program alone will result in 785 aircraft being purchased for the coming years.

In fact, the giant is in deep stagnation. As I said in the previous article, this is very clearly visible in the production of Himars. In 2022, Lockheed received half a billion dollars to expand the production of installations and missiles in the United States - from 60 installations per year to 100. But it turned out that there are no machines and trained specialists; the production of a number of key components has long been transferred to third countries. It turned out, for example, that metal or additives for its smelting have long been produced in South Asia and Africa. A range of electronic components are produced in China and Europe. Hydraulic system are produced in South America.

The worst thing is that the Himars were put into service in 81 of the last century, and the main systems did not change for more than 40 years. In modern times, this is an entire technological era - it is easier to re-design than to restore production according to ancient drawings. Himars has not been modernized all these years because it hasn’t fought much, since it’s expensive - at 160 thousand bucks a piece it is not particularly conducive to shooting unless absolutely necessary, even for Saudi Arabia, where there is a lot of money, but this is too much. When there is no regular combat operation, it is not clear in which direction weapons need to change. As a result, for the Himars, in forty years they only changed the range of ammunition and updated the electronics.

As a front-line soldier, I know that Himars became irrelevant already in the winter of 22. And when the Lancets began to drive them en masse in 2023, they generally turned into a minor thing at the front. It is no coincidence that the Americans installed the ATACMS - to launch, you don’t have to go into the close combat zone.

It very well illustrates the problems of the Americans and how we responded to the threat of the Himars- in the winter of 2022, the entire air defense of the Russian Federation switched to new software, which allowed us to work freely without worrying about them. And in 2023, a modernized Shell appeared, the ammunition of which made it possible to shoot down 100 percent of Himars salvos. That is, our engineers and industrialists were able to create and deliver actually operating installations to the army in a matter of months. The Americans, I emphasize once again, could not even simply expand the production of mastered samples.

Lockheed Martin has complete engineering impotence across almost the entire range of products. Take, for example, the main US nuclear missile - Trident II (D5) - it began to be designed in the 70s, but was completed only by 1991. This is the main US submarine-launched ballistic intercontinental missile, on which hangs 54 percent of the hegemon's nuclear strike potential. Trident has failed 90 percent of all test launches over the past 5 years. None of the launches went off without problems, and about a third of the missiles did not fly at all or flew in the wrong direction. It is clear that the rocket needs to be changed. The United States extended its service life for another five years, but the main contractor and Trident manufacturer, Lockheed, has not yet even formulated the technical specifications, there is no talk of starting design, and considering how long it took to design the Trident itself (almost twenty years), you can safely place your bets that even in five years the hegemon will not have a replacement.

Just for comparison: Russia currently has 13 different intercontinental missiles, with 6 more in the design stage. Even India has 4 types of missiles on combat duty. The hegemon has 2. Feel the taste of moral superiority. However, let's move on. The program for the production of hypersonic missiles AGM 183A (the main hope of the United States to wip the match the Khinzal) was closed last year. The combat laser program is still breathing, they even made a test sample, but that’s all. Although they promised to fight with them in '22. The Mars shuttle, announced in 2017, 10 years later not only did not appear in the drawings, it is not even in the ideas. And the money is spent.

Of course, the Pentagon’s main toy is the seemingly completed and actively purchased F-35 aircraft, which last year accounted for 24% of all US arms exports (250 units sold) - today its production has been stopped, and in fact it has been stated that the US has supplied its active troops of their own and allies with frankly a crude machine. Naturally, they cheerfully tell us that the United States will definitely finish it, this is the United States - a great aviation, missile, and space power. But we see how Lockheed is finishing off Himars, hypersonics, Trident and so on, and doubts creep in.

Do you know what the root of all this evil is? It is the US financial system, which has absorbed its armed forces and defense complex. The essence is very simple - the result is not real victories on the battlefield, but real profit figures. The owners of the top weapons corporations in the world is the so-called big financial three - the three main investment funds of the country and the world - BlackRock, State Street and Vanguard Group. There are, of course, others, but it is these three that act as the deep American state. Actually, that’s why no one cares about how the same F-35s will fight in reality, the main thing is the money is here and now.

And everything is subordinated to this goal - since 2020, Lockheed has been led by their protege Jim Taiclet, who has concentrated in his hands three main leadership positions - chairman of the board of directors, president, and chief executive officer. Tayclet's main task is to increase profits. And therefore, annual dividend payments amount to more than 50 percent, but there is no money for internal investments in equipment, the creation and development of its own engineering school, investments in scientific research, etc. Why? After all, it seems that 50 percent of net profit remains? This is a colossal number. Lockheed has a monstrous debt load - on average 90 percent of the value of all its net assets. And everything else is loan payments. That is, in reality, the number one weapons manufacturer in the world is a mortgaged, and remortgaged company that works exclusively to pay off its debts. That's why a big war is just a lifeline for a drowning monster. Once a stable world comes, it will immediately go bankrupt. This can be clearly seen from the dynamics of the debt load, for example, in the relatively peaceful year of 2017, the bad Trump did not want to fight, and the debt load immediately jumped well beyond one hundred percent of the value of their net assets. This is the economics of war.

Actually, with minor differences, the situation is the same in all major US arms corporations. The number two Pentagon contractor is General Dynamics. The same big three, the leader who concentrated all the main positions, Phoebe Novakovich, a native of the CIA and the Pentagon. The main project is the Abrams tank. In 2023, a prototype of the new unmanned Abrams was supposed to be tested, but the tank turned out to be a pilot. The main division - the development and production of nuclear submarines - is at the stage of bankruptcy.

Raytheon (the manufacturer of the Patriot), Boeing, Northrop, they all have about the same condition. On paper, everything is fine with financial indicators, but in reality the companies have fallen into slavery to financial capital, which simply milks them through inflating military orders. All profits are spent on paying monstrous dividends and interest on debts. There is no money left for personal development. The strategy with R&D (research and development work) is very simple - monsters buy up promising smaller companies, and they eventually become just as ineffective because they are placed under the general trend - the main thing is not the result, but finances. Or rather, the number of banknotes is the result. This happened with the famous English company Pratt and Whitney, the world's leading manufacturer of aircraft engines and turbines. After being absorbed by Lockheed, Pratt has not been able to complete finishing the same engine for that same F-35 for many years. But this is a separate topic.

Against this background, of course, the strategy of our state stands out very favorably, which, by any means and methods, aims our weapons manufacturers at creating precisely effective systems. Please note how many academics and heads of specialized research institutes have sat down in recent years to spend money. Let's leave this topic for the next material - but this also includes the struggle for efficiency. Now, can you remember at least one high-profile trial for wasting funds or stupidly ineffective use of them according to Pentagon orders in our country. That's right - there are no such cases. This is, in fact, how America will die, becoming completely ineffective.