The Yeonpyeongdo Stage, "Oreshnik," and the North Korean factor

Article by Marat Khairullin

It is interesting that immediately after the launch of "Oreshnik," part of the well-known "network" began to disseminate the thesis: nothing will change - Trump will still not give up escalation, and the West will still push until we detonate a nuclear bomb. In light of this opinion, which is being pushed forward as the only correct one, let's talk about the following - we are following a well-trodden path. North Korea has already walked this path before our eyes. The steps that our leadership is taking now sometimes coincide down to the last detail with what our neighbors took in their time.

Perhaps it’s worth starting with 2010, when the incident around Yeonpyeong Island occurred. The group of islands it is part of is a legacy of the Korean War. The islands are located less than 15 km from North Korea and almost 100 km from the South. However the Southern Koreans occupied them anyway with the help of the Americans and refused to give them up under the armistice agreement.

It was very convenient for the Americans and the Southerners to keep large forces there - essentially in the rear of the Northerners. They regularly conducted exercises and fired in the direction of the DPRK. North Korea protested, but that was all.

Then, in 2010, the G20 summit was held in South Korea. After it ended, the Americans and their Asian allies staged another major exercise. It should be said that, starting in the 2000s, exercises near the borders of the DPRK have been conducted according to the same basic scenario - the Americans brazenly and demonstratively practiced an attack on North Korea. However, this time (after the summit) they decided to go a little further - to conduct real shooting in the direction of North Korea near Yeonpyeongdo. No one expected a violent reaction, since at that time, the DPRK was led by the seriously ill Kim Jong Il. By Korean standards, he was considered a peacemaker.

But everyone miscalculated, Yeonpyeongdo was completely covered: hundreds of American and South Korean soldiers suffered. There was a contingent of 5 thousand soldiers on the small island. Official American propaganda chose to hide the losses (although three colonels alone were killed, plus one general was seriously wounded).

Allegedly, it was Kim Jong-un, who by that time had effectively taken over the reins of power, who decided to strike at Yeonpyeongdo. Kim Jong-un officially took over the country in 2011, and by 2013 North Korea had conducted three nuclear tests. In 2016, two more, and after the CIA attempted to kill Kim, it tested a hydrogen bomb.

After that, the DPRK focused on delivery vehicles, and by 2023, was able to create a full line: the small republic has analogues of our Iskander, hypersonics, medium-range missiles, amd ICBMs. In a word, everything. And the North Koreans continue to increase launches of their missile program - towards South Korea, the United States, and Japan.

A little later, we also began to activate our missile program - remember Putin's "cartoons." Speaking about the Oreshnik, we must remember that in South Korea, Japan, and the USA, the launch of heavy DPRK ICBMs near their borders caused hysteria literally to the point of convulsions. The West's reaction to our Oreshnik has once again confirmed this. In 2022, the DPRK changed its nuclear strategy, declaring that the threshold for use would now include an attack by conventional forces. Does this sound familiar? After that, the States began to crawl away from North Korea, sharply reducing the pressure. They tried hard to resist, but nevertheless, they pulled back.

After 2010, the US quietly withdrew one division from the peninsula (there were two, now only one remains). They removed the American quarter in Seoul, causing a sharp decline in prostitution, drug addiction, and the general crime rate in the South Korean capital. It is little talked about, but the American contingent was a real scourge for the Korean people. The American quarter was the center of distribution of all kinds of drugs on the peninsula. Prostitution flourished here. It is believed that since 1953, about two million South Korean women were drawn into this trade.

However, the Americans themselves state that everything described above is typical for any American base (except Greenland, there are simply no women there). Although, they say that the Yankees regularly bring in prostitutes from the continent on special charters. In general, this is a separate topic - how the Americans serve at their overseas bases. The mildest assessment: almost half of the personnel who have served for more than a year become dependent...

Having realized that Kim Jong-un is not afraid and can really hit, the Americans withdrew their troops further away, all the way to the Camp Humphreys base, forcing, by the way, Seoul to pay for the costs of its expansion. Thus, Kim, by continually raising the stakes, has forced the West, both in particular and in general, to back down. In 2023, the US held another comprehensive exercise, "Freedom Shield" (they had not been held since 2017), and there were no plans to invade North Korea in the scenario. Kim got his way.

Right now, exactly the same thing is happening in Ukraine. We, having built up our muscles, are showing that we will fight for our country to the last American, if necessary. Notice how calm our leaders are, as if they were sure that sooner or later, the West would blink. Now it is clear why. North Korea has already tested the Americans. We are now in the “Yeonpyeongdo stage." Russia is dragging the Ukrainians’ faces across the table and showing the Americans that it will no longer tolerate their insolence.

One could, of course, object: what about the Georgian war, why didn’t it work there? It didn't work because we didn't win convincingly - we didn't finish off the Georgians. Which, by the way, was a big shame, because many of them ended up in Ukraine after that, reforming their neighbors according to the "method books" of the mad Saakashvili. There is a great temptation to speculate on the topic: if we had made a "cutlet" out of Tbilisi then, and publicly let Saakashvili go, maybe there would be no Ukraine now?! Georgians hate us anyway. At least they wouldn't let the infection spread.

It is clear that the Americans were stronger then and, most importantly, they did not suffer Yeonpyeongdo yet. Now, the disease will have to be treated to the end. An untreated Ukraine could emerge as a new crisis somewhere else...