Large frontline summary 27-31 January 2025

Large frontline summary 27-31 January 2025, by Marat Khairullin

Image Credit: The New York Times

Today, a surprising situation has developed. To understand what is happening at the front, it is necessary to take into account the international context, and vice versa, without taking into account international issues, it is impossible to analyze the situation at the front.

Therefore, let us immediately outline foreign policy priorities in order to move on to the situation on the ground. The most important thing is that preliminary consultations have begun. Usually, the goal of such contacts is to develop a roadmap for entering into direct negotiations and subsequent agreements. The problem is that there are several tracks where agreements need to be developed, and they need to be somehow brought together into a single document.

At a glance, the economic block is visible: what to do with frozen Russian assets? What to do with sanctions? What to do with the undermined position of the dollar?

The political bloc envisages solving problems with Europe, which wants war. Trump, however, has already begun to drive it into the stall - it is no coincidence that Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin expressed himself quite clearly: they will run to the owner and wag their tails. That is, the positions have been fixed - Europe will not put a spoke in the wheel of the peace process, but rather, the US is taking this upon itself. The same applies to NATO - its collective position will not be taken into account.

Another consideration is the territorial block - how will we distribute armies? Last week, our country clearly stated that there will be no ceasefire. We will continue to move forward until we reach a real agreement (satisfactory to ourselves).

The Americans, judging by the indirect reaction, accepted this position. And then Vladimir Putin outlined the basic conditions for starting a concrete conversation: Ukraine must have a legitimate representative. Keith Kellogg (Trump's voice for settling the conflict in Ukraine) responded immediately and set the task for Ukropia - it's time for elections.

Keith Kellogg

Note that they did not bargain - like stop shooting, and we will leisurely hold elections somehow. No, Kellogg clearly stated - it's time. That is, here too, the US is ready for a peace process. However, while the Americans will persuade the Ukrainian "donkey" to move on, we have time to work on the ground - to finally secure our Victory.

Another important point is the internal structure of the future Ukraine. There have been no official public proposals yet. But it is already obvious that the constitution will be changed, the regions in the east will receive the right to self-government. Russia will insist on observing the rights of the Russian-speaking population. The simplest and most understandable way is to introduce gubernatorial elections in all "Russian" regions from Odessa to Kharkov. This alone will make the return of the Nazis to power a problem. An interesting leak from internal NATO documents indicates that Russia will create a demilitarized zone along its border so that there are no military formations within a distance of 150 kilometers.

And let's not forget about war crimes - Russia will demand the extradition of all criminals. The war in Ukraine does not interest anyone. What interests them is the future structure of the world. That is, there is really hope that we will see a new Yalta.

Our army has until May or a little more to finish off the enemy. The most important issue on the ground now is the capture of the Pokrovsk defense node of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Next on the agenda are Konstantinovka and the Seversk arc, covering Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. Access to Russia's constitutional borders in Donetsk and Lugansk is not disputed.

As for the exit to Zaporozhye and Kherson, the border will probably stop where we have time to get to. For now, the most problematic place is the Seversk direction. In this regard, we are closely monitoring the next assault on Belogorovka - this is a conditional Avdeevka in this direction. As soon as we take Belogorovka, the front will begin to move.

Of importance - a major offensive is expected at the front. There are estimates that by March, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be at the lowest point of their disintegration. However, the battles in the Kurakhovo direction, and in Toretsk and Chasov Yar, have shown that the Ukrainian Armed Forces still have some reserves to keep the front from collapsing.

And in order to finally break the enemy, our army can move to active actions in several more directions. One of them is definitely Seversk - the pressure is already increasing there. But the second is still in question. Purely speculatively, a deep Zaporozhye operation suggests itself. In any case, the time is approaching for the next date of the "Gerasimov schedule" - there is such an informal concept at the front. This is when every four to five months, a new area for an offensive opens up - Avdeevka, Chasov Yar, Volchansk, Toretsk, Kurakhovo, Ugledar. In this schedule, Seversk is clearly behind - a breakthrough offensive in this direction has been talked about for a long time. Perhaps the situation is ripe now. And, of course, Kupyansk and Orekhovo are being considered. In a word, we will wait.