Large frontline summary 21-27 January 2025
War - the final stretch? This game is over, but the tournament continues! Article by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Perhaps never before in this war has the situation on the frontlines so heavily dictated the overall agenda. It is clear that last week set the main political trend—the United States is ready for peace talks. And, by all indications, in the context our country has been insisting on: a global settlement for coexistence on the planet. Ukraine is merely a detail that no one cares about.
Our official leadership, through key spokespersons, has clearly outlined the general disposition: the U.S. has come around, Ukraine is of no interest to anyone, and it can be dealt with as we please. Europe is resisting, but Russia can, as it sees fit, bring it to heel. Whether by nuclear strikes or burning factories—the U.S. has clearly set its priorities here. The hegemon will not step in for a devastated Romania or Poland—not under Trump.
In this context, the hints our side gleefully sends to Europe are quite satisfying—the cable war in the Baltics is just the beginning. As they say, it’s not just the British who know how to quietly cause trouble.
With the preparation of major peace agreements underway, it is crucial how the final stretch of this particular chess game will look. Let me reiterate, the main strategic objective on the front at this stage is reaching Russia’s constitutional borders.
Politically, it has been clearly stated that combat operations will continue during the preparation of negotiations without any preconditions—our army has a completely free hand here. This is important.
The main reference point from which the situation will develop further is reaching the borders of the Donetsk region. The liberation of Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, and everything that precedes them. Accordingly, the main tactical objective is the capture of Pokrovsk.
If our army manages to take the city within one, maximum two months, it will mean we can tackle the liberation of larger agglomerations. The Ukrops, for their part, intend to cling to cities like Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, and hold them for as long as possible. This will influence the entire peace process.
To assess the enemy’s chances here, one must look at Kurakhovo, Velikaya Novosyolka, and Toretsk. In all three of these strongholds, the Ukrops tried to create local superiority in manpower. On the ground, sometimes by three to four times—this speaks to Ukraine’s reserves, which still exist.
At the same time, Kurakhovo was liberated in three weeks, and Velikaya Novosyolka in two. Toretsk is somewhat different—fighting has been ongoing since summer. But it’s a very complex agglomeration from the start—concentrated coal mines and difficult terrain. Our army couldn’t create a large encirclement, so they had to break the front into smaller pieces and clear them systematically.
Velikaya Novosyolka and Kurakhovo were taken by creating a classic encirclement. Exactly the same is now happening with Pokrovsk. By capturing Selidovo and then Kurakhovo, we are calmly bypassing the city from the southern flank.
With the liberation of Toretsk and then Chasov Yar, pressure on Konstantinovka will begin, which in turn will allow us to start bypassing Pokrovsk from the north. After that, everything will follow the script of Ugledar, Kurakhovo, and Velikaya Novosyolka—encirclement and total cleansing.
The main difference from previous operations is the scale. We have not yet fought battles of this size in this war. Hence, the corresponding preparation. The visit of Valery Gerasimov (Chief of our General Staff) to the front is precisely an inspection ahead of such a critical operation.
It is a multi-layered operation. The outer perimeter—the flanks of Velikaya Novosyolka and Konstantinovka—must be securely held so that the main force can focus on the inner perimeter, thus encircling and pushing out the enemy from Pokrovsk-Mirnograd.
A general estimate suggests that approximately 10-12 armies will be deployed across the two layers. Conditionally, we will need four groupings—this is akin to the fronts during the Great Patriotic War. I remind you that we currently have about 22 combined arms armies of the Russian Federation operating on the front. This means we are truly witnessing grand events. No conflict since the Great Patriotic War has involved so many forces simultaneously.
The capture of Pokrovsk is the final stretch. Everything else is just details. If we take Pokrovsk successfully, we can take anything—be it Kiev or even Paris. As for Warsaw, we’ll “wipe our feet on it.” A joke, of course, but it’s a very important point that I'm making.
If we take Pokrovsk quickly, we will likely take Zaporozhye and Kherson quickly as well. If the assault drags on, we will reach the borders of the Donetsk region and then decide our next steps.
By March, the first consultations between American working groups and our own are likely to begin. Rumors suggest that our working group will be headed personally by either Ushakov or Shoigu. This alone speaks to the seriousness of the upcoming event. Let us wish our warriors good luck—their actions will, in the literal sense, determine the fate of the world.
Your absolutely right Marat, the fate of the world is in the Russians hands. Go forward with God speed our hearts are with you ❤️🙏.
There is No way in Hell, that I would make a deal with the Americans until the Russian military is setting up air defenses on the Dnepr R. and already had Odecca and Transnistria liberated. Russia has lost too many good men and the rest of the dead Slavs will mean nothing, if those three milestones aren't met. Russia has the West on the ropes in Ukraine - finish the job or they will snake their way back in.