Analysis of the Political and Military Front
A special report by Mikhail Popov – Author of "Declassified" Maps
We consistently discuss the military situation on this channel, as well as the political angle. In this brief overview, we will attempt to connect these two fronts (political and military) and examine their current state and potential developments from this perspective. Politics is a tool of economics. War is the continuation of politics by other means (as someone great once said, though this is not certain). It is incorrect to analyze the course of military operations without considering the political backdrop. Therefore, let us begin our review of the military situation by linking it to changes in the political landscape.
The current events did not emerge spontaneously; there is a sense of some plan, control, and influence over what is happening. The U.S. President has halted aid to the "ruined" country. In the political space we refer to as the "West," there is division and confusion. We can assume that the further development of the political situation will follow several main directions:
- The West will find levers and opportunities to overcome its main contradictions and resume efforts to pressure the Russian Federation through military and economic means;
- The division within the West will continue, its aid to the "ruined" country will weaken, turbulence will ensue, and responses will have to be immediate;
- Cornered rats will make a final desperate move, provoke, and trigger a war in the European theater of military operations (ETO).
There could be a range of other scenarios, but we are not able to read the minds of politicians, and this is not just about politics. In any of the above scenarios, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation must be prepared to act swiftly, precisely, and decisively.
Now, let us briefly look at the balance of forces. The "ruined" country has neither its own economy nor weapons. Its political situation worsens daily, both domestically and internationally. There is ongoing forced mobilization, which has now extended to young men.
There are two possible outcomes:
a) Dragging EU countries' armies into the war on its side (their economies are already involved);
b) Transitioning to state-scale terrorist activities.
Russia – its economy is growing, its political positions are strengthening, and its Armed Forces are being staffed with contract soldiers (volunteers). The main weak point in the military-economic sphere is the population deficit.
Russia values its people and conducts its activities with this principle at the forefront of all decisions, both political and operational-tactical. In any scenario, the RF Armed Forces must now regroup and prepare for potential challenges.
Regarding the operational-tactical situation:
Since autumn 2023, when the RF Armed Forces began a powerful advance in the center of the Donetsk direction (from Avdeevka), this direction became the main focus, while others became supporting directions. Through deliberate actions in these directions, the General Staff tied down the maneuver of Ukrainian reserves, creating threats – diverting their efforts to secondary directions and stretching them thin. This allowed a breakthrough on the main (Donetsk) direction and the penetration of the enemy's multi-layered defense, which had been built over years and relied on complex terrain and developed infrastructure. On the map, we can see the progress in this direction. For example, the distance (in a straight line) from Avdeevka to Udachnoe (the westernmost point of the direction) is approximately 57 km.
The Kursk region, of course, stands as a separate issue. However, through proper decisions, the Russian leadership turned this "success" of the enemy into a problem for them. Moreover, this happened synchronously with changes in the political situation: by the time the clown Zelensky intended to use this argument as a trump card (in his political game with the U.S.), it had become one of his weak points. The RF Armed Forces are driving out the remnants of Ukrainian gangs and mercenaries from Kursk land. Furthermore, when a window of opportunity opened in relations with the U.S., this success became particularly striking.
In addition to the physical results, these actions provided another outcome – the Army learned and gained invaluable combat experience. No army in the world can become victorious without such experience, no matter how advanced its weapons. No exercises or maneuvers can replace this combat experience.
The RF Armed Forces have undergone not only quantitative expansion but also qualitative changes – in both equipment and military art. The same people – generals, officers, soldiers – are on the front lines, but these are (qualitatively) entirely different headquarters, units, and divisions.
It is important to understand that the kinetic energy of an attack tends to deplete. To continue and build up efforts, new energy must be accumulated. This is achieved through the regrouping of forces.
Considering the political situation, which we briefly mentioned above, the RF Armed Forces must prepare a new line of combat impact across the entire operational depth:
- Deploy rear support across all echelons;
- Prepare and deploy new supply depots and repair bases;
- Ensure the protection and concealment of rear areas;
- Expand counterintelligence activities in new territories, which are infested with saboteurs, terrorists, and their hidden bases.
It is important to understand that the length of the front line and the area of controlled territory have increased significantly, requiring human resources for their maintenance. However, Russia's resources are limited, given the demands of economic development, which also requires labor. In our opinion, this factor is what restrains the Russian leadership so as to not "choke on a large morsel..."
The Army is ready and capable. What restrains it is the limits of the demands on the population. The Army, as announced by the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, has increased the operational space.
This statement was primarily intended for ears listening from beyond the western border. Currently, preparations are underway for a new ETO, which the Macrons-Starmers and their "Baltic lapdogs" are eyeing for themselves. The RF Armed Forces are preparing precisely for a new, decisive phase.
The resolution of this knot lies in politics. In our opinion, there will be no active large-scale actions in the near future. The energy of military success will be seized by politicians, and the main actions will shift to the political front. For now, Russia will achieve the objectives of the Special Military Operation (SMO) through a political breakthrough, preserving the lives of soldiers, cities, and villages in our new territories. These territories, as a result of successful political decisions, must remain intact.
The Army has prepared and created all of the conditions for this. Depending on the political situation, it will pressure the enemy's pain points and strike where the opponent (not the Ukrops) will feel it most. However, it is important to understand that, in the strategic perspective, today's events are merely an episode in a larger struggle.
As the Supreme Commander warned – this struggle will last for decades. Our leadership, our economy, and all of us must be prepared for this.
Thank you for the insight. Good article. The SMO has been a last resort, since diplomacy was broken off by the West. The Russians have always been open to negotiation. 3 years later, and the position of Russia has improved, whereas the West have realised that the truth differs greatly from their perception of Russian capability. It will be interesting to see what will follow politically.
Simply accepting that the current struggle is just one moment in a long resolution means accepting history in a way that effectively cancels out the current tendency to flatten the past and the future under a continuous avalanche of lies and illusions. And crucially, it also brings about its own future.