American intelligence has decided to shake off the old ways
American intelligence has decided to shake off the old ways
Article by Marat Khairullin
Let's speak a little bit about the good news. The Houthis shot down the 12th Reaper drone (MQ-9 Reaper). There's a ton of information behind this short report. First of all, a Reaper costs about $50-60 million (the numbers are different everywhere) (Translator Note: Apparently, these drones were sold to the Indian government at about $129 million per unit!). Which is expensive in itself. This is already the thirty-fifth Reaper destroyed during its service life, and we dropped three of them. Two were dropped over the Black Sea (by pouring kerosene on them and blowing on it with the engine) and one in Syria (by launching a flare at it - in a word, we mocked it as best we could). By the way, our newest Su-57 is valued at $40 million.
Secondly, the Reaper is one of the youngest "animals in the stable" of the US Air Force. But at the same time, the American military is avoiding using it as much as possible. Why? It is not known exactly, it is a big secret. But last year, the US Air Force was going to dump 100 Reapers out of 230 at once on a non-core and unnamed department.
Apparently, it did not work out. However, this year, they have definitely written off 38. And they are going to write off the same number next year. And by 2031, they will get rid of them altogether, and this is happening with to two important factors to keep in mind. The average age of the Reapers in the Air Force is only 7 years. This is despite the fact that the average age of the US Air Force fleet in general is over 30 years. The second important point is that the US has a huge problem with reconnaissance assets on the modern battlefield. The story of getting rid of the Reapers is part of a more interesting process of the US abandoning large unmanned systems. The US has already gotten rid of the Predators (MQ-1 Predator), and in the next two years they will completely get rid of the Global Hawk (MQ-4 Global Hawk), and now there are only 9 of them left. Although they are all relatively new, the oldest was released in 2011. The price is from 140 to 260 million dollars per unit (the F-35 nervously smokes on the sidelines).
In the nearest future, the niche of the "Hawks" should be filled by "Reapers," and the dwindling population of "Reapers" should be replaced by U-2 (Lady Dragon) airplanes this year, which, mind you, are 40 plus years old (the average age of the fleet).
At the same time, let's not forget that the US has a wild, simply indecent shortage of pilots. And for the U-2, some human health limits are needed. Plus, it is necessary to take into account the specifics of technical operation. And still, the Air Force refuses the Reaper drones in favor of this manned antiquity.
Let's add a little more intrigue here. The manufacturer of the Reapers, General Atomics (a division of General Dynamics), is one of the most well-funded lobbyists in the US. There is open data that General Atomics spent about $27 million in the US Congress to promote its contracts until 2011 alone. How much after that - who knows?
The US Air Force was supposed to buy almost 400 Reapers and then switch to some new thing that was almost ready. But the Pentagon didn't even fulfill that contract. By the way, General Atomics is the same company that for many years sold the legendary “Blitz Railgun” to the US Navy. Now General Atomics, together with its "daddy" General Dynamics, which is, mind you, the Pentagon's third-largest contractor, are stamping their feet on the military for refusing to use Reaper. But they are standing there like a rock.
This is against the background of the fact that the US has only 25 air reconnaissance aircraft left (the so-called radar detection and guidance systems). And all of them are based on the Boeing 707. The average age of these machines is 60 years.
In terms of air reconnaissance, the US has nothing else. Only space-based systems. But we will talk about their condition separately. One can, of course, assume that the cunning Americans are preparing some kind of harsh replacement for all these "Reapers," "Hawks," and even the ancient "Boeing"... But no. We do not see anything like that. There are no promising air reconnaissance systems for purchase, not even in the project pipeline.
The US, as a military power, is currently maximally focused on the implementation of programs for the F-35, the KC-46 tanker, the advanced B-21 bomber, and the 6th generation fighter. By the way, they are going to buy 100 B-21s starting in 2031 at a price of 650 million dollars per unit. But these are just plans. As we remember, not a single new US system has been delivered on time in the last twenty years. There are no reconnaissance aerial platforms in these plans at all. The question is - why?
Considering the constant presence of the US everywhere possible, the Americans really need such reconnaissance systems. Even the story with the Houthis shows this. People in slippers shoot down Reaper after Reaper, and the US is still forced to send them for additional reconnaissance. Otherwise, apparently, it is not at all convenient to strike the Houthi bases.
Ours brought down two Reapers over the Black Sea. Now either Hawks or those same ancient Boeings are flying there cautiously. That is, satellite systems can not cope without additional reconnaissance.
And yet, there are no plans to replace them. What happened to America's famous military might, which could do everything, always, and in any hole? Apparently, the US has accumulated so many problems over the years of global prosperity that they have simply despaired of solving them all. And now they are trying to concentrate on the most pressing ones. In general, they have no time for "Reapers" now.
Right before our eyes, a complete collapse of a long-term and very ambitious American UAV program is taking place, and around this, there is a modest silence. Remember how many movies there were in Hollywood with unobtrusively annoying advertising of these drones - they were shown as a symbol of invincibility, no more and no less. But it turned out to be a dud: dancing people in slippers have trashed this symbol in all the cracks before the eyes of the whole world.
No respect for the hegemon - it's simply not decent. That's how much information there is in one short message. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that the Hawk's manufacturer, Teledyne Ryan Aeronautical, died somewhere in the depths of Northrop, as if it never existed.
General Atomics is still fluttering along, but it too is apparently living out its last years, if not months, in the graveyard of General Dynamics companies. Incidentally, the Pentagon's big three contractors - Northrop, Lockheed, and Dynamics - aren't doing too well. Or, more accurately, they're not doing well at all. And this is against the backdrop of Intel and Boeing crumbling.
In a relatively short period of time (10-15 years), the largest manufacturing and technological giants of the USA suddenly began to die en masse. Like some whales... We'll talk about this in more detail next time.
Here’s the deal. The government hires only affirmative action or DEI employees. Private industry also has to hire them also but keep them away from power. While the government gives the knuckleheads all the power. They are no match for the used car salesman selling them lemon after lemon. They also get great contracts keeping the junk running.
Thanks for the essay.
Is there any possibility that they are setting up something like Starlink? A mass of low orbiting sattelites for reconnaissance / suveillance?