A special analysis from the illustrator of maps!

Mikhail Popov (author of "un-classified maps")

It is always interesting to guess the course of further developments. Let's try to think about it. I warn you right away that I did not steal the cards, did not receive any secret information, and everything that will be drawn in letters and written in pictures was dreamed in delirium after visiting Yuri Podolyaki's channel (translator: this is a bit of inside joke for those of us aware of the situation).

Now, the Russian Armed Forces are conducting a filigree (delicate, work of art) operation to destroy the Ukrainian Armed Forces without stretching their own forces or burdening themselves with holding large areas. The expectation is that after the destruction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' potential, resources will be freed up to ensure control in the liberated territories, restore order there, and fight the internal enemy.

One of the main theaters of military operations now is the Donetsk direction and its junction with the Zaporozhye direction.

Why is this section so important? The Kurakhovo-Ugledar-Velyka Novosilka-Gulyai Pole-Orekhov line is a direct threat to our new land route to Crimea. It was this land corridor that was the target in the initial period of the SMO, when the enemy's main forces were distracted by diversionary actions in the north of Ruina (Kyiv-Sumy-Kharkov), and the Russian Armed Forces completed the task of liberating the territories of Donbass, Kherson, and Zaporozhye regions to secure this corridor and transfer the Sea of ​​Azov to the status of an internal sea of ​​Russia.

The next phase of the SMO is the methodical and persistent destruction of the potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. After repelling the spring-summer counteroffensive of the enemy, who sought to cut off precisely this land corridor of Central Russia-Crimea, the Russian Armed Forces began to grind down the Ukrainian Armed Forces without seizing the initiative. In my humble opinion, the Russian military command did this deliberately, allowing the Ukies to bang their heads against the wall (in a manner so that they didn't stop trying, or realize their error).

At this stage there was one very active section - the Center Group in the Donetsk direction (where, after unscrewing the nut (Avdeevka) on the belly of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, their ass fell off) of the Russian Armed Forces made a dash through Avdeevka-Ocheretino-Progress, securing control over the central logistics hub in this section.

At the next stage, after the Ukrainian Armed Forces had moved to a lower level of combat readiness, active operations began in the Kharkov direction and in the Toretsk area (to secure the right flank of the Center Group), and operations continue in this direction still. The actions in the Toretsk sector created a threat to the enemy on the southern face of his Slavyansk-Druzhkovka defense area. Thus, the forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were stretched out over a wide front.

We were also able to see that the plan of our General Staff was not a frontal breach of the Volchya River-Karlovskoye Reservoir-Kurakhovo line (a sort of "Eastern rampart" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces), but a bypass of it from the north, entering the rear of the defending group of AFU.

As soon as the Ukrainian Armed Forces rushed into the Kursk region, actions began to split and destroy the Kurakhovo-Ugledar-Velikaya Novoselka-Gulyai Pole-Orekhov line, to ensure the security of our Azov coast and the land corridor to Crimea.

One of the nodes of this line is the Ugledar district, and now, during the regrouping of the RF Armed Forces in the Pokrovsky area and the preparation of logistics for further actions, our movement near Ugledar has begun. In my opinion, the line Ugledar-Vodyanoye-Konstantinovka is the foreground of the main fortified area, which, I assume, is located somewhere in the area Prechistovka-Novoukrainka-Blagodatnoye. Why do I think so?

Firstly, this area (No. 4 on the diagram) has a watershed in its central part, which allows for operational and tactical dominance over the entire Velikaya Novoselovka-Kurakhovo-Konstantinovka area. Secondly, this area is saturated with roads, and the configuration of the LOC (line of contact) in this area allows them to be used both as radial (intersecting the front line) and as rocades (running parallel or along the front line). For example, the Maryinka-Ugledar road for the Urozhainoe-Vladimirovka section will be radial, and for the Maryinka-Ugledar section, a parallel transport line (rocade). This ensures mobility and room for maneuvering reserves throughout the entire area of ​​the district.

People never build towns and villages on the very crest of a mountain range if there is a river valley nearby. Settlements are located in valleys. Water here does not need to be lifted up, and they are protected from the winds. Vegetation also predominates in the valleys.

Novoukrainka is located almost ideally: the watershed and the river valley are nearby. Novoukrainka is in a lowland, and next to it (with an elevation of 100 meters) is a flat elevation. From the flanks, Bogoyavlenka and Prechistovka are also hiding in the lowlands, but they control the entrance to the watershed-highland. Here, the defense line is ideally located. Positions and command posts on the heights are difficult to observe and control by the enemy, and the rear is hidden behind folds of terrain in the lowlands, and logistics are carried out there.

Based on the above, I assume that in this direction the breach of the defense area of ​​the Ukrainian Armed Forces Prechistovka-Novoukrainka-Bogoyavlenka will be carried out, with pressure in the direction of Zolotaya Niva-Velyka Novoselka, with the task of covering the left flank of our group in the main direction. After entering the Bogoyavlenka area, the resistance of the Ukrainian army in the Ugledar area will become meaningless and will allow the Russian Armed Forces to ensure the movement of our forces in the direction of enveloping Selidovo-Kurakhovka. This way, we will also create a threat to the defense area of ​​the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Kurakhovo.

All these thoughts are voiced with the aim of a more comprehensive view of what is happening with the goal of strengthening the nerves and spirit of the readers.

And we'll see how it really will be...